SpaceX (expected NYSE or Nasdaq) successfully completes its IPO by December 31, 2026 (confirmed by SEC listing commencement or SpaceX press release)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. December 2026
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Based on: Speculative
SpaceX has already published its S-1, Goldman Sachs leads a 21-bank syndicate and began the roadshow on June 4, 2026. This is the most advanced IPO preparation stage for any US listing. Typically, listing follows a roadshow within 2–4 weeks – unless deliberately delayed. Key risks: sustained market correction from oil price shock and tech sell-off, political regulatory risks (Musk-administration tensions) or deliberate decision to remain private. Despite this progress, there is still ~35% residual risk of a slip beyond 2026. Own estimate: 62%.
Data basis for this prediction
- SpaceX S-1 public, Goldman Sachs leads 21-bank syndicate, roadshow began 04.06.2026 – IPOX Update 18.07.2026
- IndMoney: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic als top US-IPO-Kandidaten 2026 (Goldman Sachs lead)
- 2026 IPO-Volumen: 46 IPOs / 28,2 Mrd. USD bis Mai 2026 (vs. 25 / 11,1 Mrd. USD Vorjahr) – PwC Midyear M&A Outlook
- Dealroom 2026 IPO pipeline: SpaceX 'targeting listing' (frühestens H2 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Anthropic filed its confidential S-1 on June 1, 2026 and selected Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase as lead underwriters on June 3, 2026. The most recent valuation (Series H, May 28, 2026) was $965bn post-money. A targeted IPO 'as early as October 2026' typically implies a public S-1 filing 4–6 weeks before roadshow start – i.e. September 2026. Key risks: market volatility from tech corrections, decision to remain private or delay to Q4. No direct Polymarket anchor; own estimate 43% (high preparation level but timing uncertainty remains).
💻 Technology
✦ AI
OpenAI reported an annualized revenue (ARR) of approx. USD 12.7 billion in early 2026 according to The Information. The company closed a Series-F funding round in March 2026 at a valuation of over USD 300 billion. With the GPT-5 generation (predicted by existing Cassandra forecast to launch by end-2026), Enterprise ChatGPT growth, API revenues, and the ChatGPT Pro subscription (USD 200/month), annual revenue >USD 10 billion in calendar year 2026 is highly likely. Key risks: intense competition from Google Gemini and Anthropic, and potential regulatory restrictions. Metaculus consensus sees OpenAI ARR at end-2026 at USD 10–15 billion.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Bitcoin is trading at approximately $65,658 on July 23, 2026 (Coinbase). Polymarket assigns a 47% probability to BTC closing above $75,000 at year-end 2026 — this market rate is adopted as the anchor. Structural drivers: institutional ETF inflows since the spot ETF launch (January 2024), halving effect (April 2024, historically 12–18 months of bullish momentum), growing Sovereign Bitcoin Reserves, and US regulatory clarity. Counterforces: Fed rate hike expected for September 2026 (consensus forecast, +25 bps to 3.75–4.00%), elevated real rates, and geopolitical risk aversion (Middle East crisis) could weigh on risk assets. Polymarket: 63% for BTC > $70,000, 47% for BTC > $75,000, 32% for BTC > $80,000 (all year-end 2026, as of July 2026).