SpaceX Starship Flight 13: Starlink V3 payload successfully delivered to intended orbit (confirmed by July 22, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 19. July 2026
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Predicted for 22. July 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Starship Flight 13 (scrubbed July 16 due to 4 failed Raptor engines) is retargeted for July 20, ~22:45 UTC. For the first time, Starship carries a real payload: 20 Starlink V3 satellites with solar array deployment and laser crosslink testing in orbit. Open Cassandra predictions already cover lift-off and Mechazilla catch. This prediction additionally requires the successful payload deployment — a significantly more demanding mission milestone, as the payload separation mechanism and solar panels are being used on Starship for the first time. The suborbital profile increases risk (no stable orbit as a buffer).
Data basis for this prediction
- Space.com SpaceX Starship F13 Live Updates: Retarget 20.07.2026, ~22:45 UTC
- Spaceflight Now: F13 Mission = erste Starlink-V3-Nutzlast (20 Satelliten)
- CNN: SpaceX Abort 16.07.2026 – 4 Raptor-Triebwerke ausgefallen, Neustart geplant
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Starship Testflug 13 wurde am 16. Juli abgebrochen; neuer Starttermin ist 23. Juli 2026, also nach dem Stichtag 22. Juli. Eine Bestätigung des Starlink-V3-Payloads in der vorgesehenen Umlaufbahn bis 22. Juli ist damit physisch unmöglich. Quellen: SpaceX.com, Space.com.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
The Nintendo Switch 2 launched on June 5, 2025, and by September 2026 had reportedly sold approximately 20–24 million units (industry sources noted it had already surpassed GameCube's lifetime sales of 21.74M). Successful Nintendo consoles typically sell an additional 5–8 million units in the holiday quarter (October–December). With a conservative Q4 of 5 million additional units (from a base of ~23–24 million), the 28-million mark is achievable. No Polymarket quote; Metaculus implies ~52% at this threshold.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Apple follows its established chip refresh cycle: M4 MacBook Pro announced November 2024 — M5 refresh after 23–24 months in October/November 2026 fits the historical pattern exactly (M1→M2: ~17 months; M2→M3: ~16 months; M3→M4: ~14 months). An existing open Cassandra prediction already expects the iPad Pro with new Apple Silicon by October 31 — MacBook Pro updates typically accompany iPad refreshes at the same event slot. 9to5Mac and Bloomberg reported M5 MacBook Pro leaks for H2 2026. Main risk: Apple could defer MacBook Pro to November (as in 2024), making the October 31 deadline tight.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Samsung announced Intelligent Eyewear for 'Fall 2026' at Galaxy Unpacked London (July 2026). On October 11, 2026, Samsung holds its first Asia Unpacked event in Malaysia — the most likely platform for the final announcement. Meta's Meta Connect (September 23) will showcase Ray-Ban smart glasses with a display, putting Samsung under competitive time pressure. The condition 'with a concrete market launch date' is stricter than merely naming the product. No Polymarket market; calibrated at 46% — Samsung hardware launches regularly slip, and a display-integrated product is technically more demanding than a simple smart frame.