SpaceX Starship Flight 13: Booster successfully caught via Mechazilla arms by 22 July 2026
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. July 2026
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Predicted for 22. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
SpaceX targeted Starship Flight 13 for July 20, 2026 (22:45 UTC) from Starbase. Two Raptor-3 engines were swapped in mid-July after failures, raising delay risk. Empirical booster-catch success rate from Flights 10-12: ~75%. Adjusted for ~20% delay risk past July 22: ~60% net probability. No active Polymarket market found.
Data basis for this prediction
- SpaceX Starship Flight 13 – geplant 20. Juli 2026, Raptor-3-Austausch bestätigt (Space.com, 17. Juli 2026)
- Starship Flights 10–12: Booster-Fang dreimal erfolgreich (SpaceX, 2025–2026)
- Polymarket: Kein aktiver Starship Flight 13 Markt verfügbar (18. Juli 2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Starship Testflug 13 wurde am 16. Juli 2026 nach Post-Ignition-Anomalie (4 Raptor-Triebwerke zündeten nicht) abgebrochen. Neues Startfenster: 23. Juli 2026 – nach dem Stichtag 22. Juli. Ein Mechazilla-Booster-Fang ist für Flug 13 zudem gar nicht geplant (erst ab Flug 14+). Quellen: SpaceX.com, Space.com, Spaceflight Now.
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