SpaceX Starship IFT-13 (launched July 24, 2026): First successful deployment of 20 Starlink V3 production satellites confirmed via SpaceX webcast
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. July 2026
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Predicted for 25. July 2026
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Based on: Speculative
SpaceX launched Starship Flight 13 (Booster 20, Ship 40) on July 24, 2026 (window: 6:45 PM EDT / 22:45 UTC). Primary mission objective: first deployment of 20 Starlink V3 production satellites designed for direct-to-cell smartphone service. Two prior attempts scrubbed: July 16 (four engine failures) and July 23 (weather). SpaceX expressed high confidence after post-abort engine repairs. Satellite deployment requires overall flight success (separation, upper-stage ignition). Note: the existing open prediction 'Booster returns, Ship survives reentry' covers a separate mission dimension; this prediction targets the primary payload objective.
Data basis for this prediction
- Space.com: 'SpaceX Starship Flight 13 launch updates' — Booster 20 + Ship 40, 20 Starlink V3 satellites primary payload (23. Juli 2026)
- Spaceflight Now: 'Live coverage: SpaceX ready for 2nd attempt to launch Starship Flight 13 following post-abort engine work' (23. Juli 2026)
- SpaceX mission description: First deployment of Starlink V3 production satellites for direct-to-cell service — IFT-13 launch window July 24, 2026 6:45 PM EDT
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Starship IFT-13 startete NICHT am 24. Juli 2026: SpaceX sagte den Versuch wegen Tropensturm Bertha ab (KeepTrack X Report 24 Jul 2026; Space.com live updates). Die im Prädikat geforderte Startbedingung '24. Juli' ist definitiv gescheitert; eine bestätigte Satellitenauslieferung bis Ende 25. Juli ist nicht mehr möglich.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
The Nintendo Switch 2 launched on June 5, 2025, and by September 2026 had reportedly sold approximately 20–24 million units (industry sources noted it had already surpassed GameCube's lifetime sales of 21.74M). Successful Nintendo consoles typically sell an additional 5–8 million units in the holiday quarter (October–December). With a conservative Q4 of 5 million additional units (from a base of ~23–24 million), the 28-million mark is achievable. No Polymarket quote; Metaculus implies ~52% at this threshold.
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✦ AI
Apple follows its established chip refresh cycle: M4 MacBook Pro announced November 2024 — M5 refresh after 23–24 months in October/November 2026 fits the historical pattern exactly (M1→M2: ~17 months; M2→M3: ~16 months; M3→M4: ~14 months). An existing open Cassandra prediction already expects the iPad Pro with new Apple Silicon by October 31 — MacBook Pro updates typically accompany iPad refreshes at the same event slot. 9to5Mac and Bloomberg reported M5 MacBook Pro leaks for H2 2026. Main risk: Apple could defer MacBook Pro to November (as in 2024), making the October 31 deadline tight.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Samsung announced Intelligent Eyewear for 'Fall 2026' at Galaxy Unpacked London (July 2026). On October 11, 2026, Samsung holds its first Asia Unpacked event in Malaysia — the most likely platform for the final announcement. Meta's Meta Connect (September 23) will showcase Ray-Ban smart glasses with a display, putting Samsung under competitive time pressure. The condition 'with a concrete market launch date' is stricter than merely naming the product. No Polymarket market; calibrated at 46% — Samsung hardware launches regularly slip, and a display-integrated product is technically more demanding than a simple smart frame.