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SpaceX Starship IFT-13 (launched July 24, 2026): First successful deployment of 20 Starlink V3 production satellites confirmed via SpaceX webcast
Probability
50%
SpaceX launched Starship Flight 13 (Booster 20, Ship 40) on July 24, 2026 (window: 6:45 PM EDT / 22:45 UTC). Primary mission objective: first deployment of 20 Starlink V3 production satellites designed for direct-to-cell smartphone service. Two prior attempts scrubbed: July 16 (four engine failures) and July 23 (weather). SpaceX expressed high confidence after post-abort engine repairs. Satellite deployment requires overall flight success (separation, upper-stage ignition). Note: the existing open prediction 'Booster returns, Ship survives reentry' covers a separate mission dimension; this prediction targets the primary payload objective.
Data basis for this prediction
- Space.com: 'SpaceX Starship Flight 13 launch updates' — Booster 20 + Ship 40, 20 Starlink V3 satellites primary payload (23. Juli 2026)
- Spaceflight Now: 'Live coverage: SpaceX ready for 2nd attempt to launch Starship Flight 13 following post-abort engine work' (23. Juli 2026)
- SpaceX mission description: First deployment of Starlink V3 production satellites for direct-to-cell service — IFT-13 launch window July 24, 2026 6:45 PM EDT
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Starship IFT-13 startete NICHT am 24. Juli 2026: SpaceX sagte den Versuch wegen Tropensturm Bertha ab (KeepTrack X Report 24 Jul 2026; Space.com live updates). Die im Prädikat geforderte Startbedingung '24. Juli' ist definitiv gescheitert; eine bestätigte Satellitenauslieferung bis Ende 25. Juli ist nicht mehr möglich.