💻 Technology · Tomorrow

SpaceX Starship IFT-13 (23 July 2026): All 33 Raptor engines of Booster B13 ignite fully — no repeat of the post-ignition anomaly of 16 July (confirmed by SpaceX webcast)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 22. July 2026 · Predicted for 23. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

78%

The first IFT-13 launch attempt on 16 July 2026 was aborted after a post-ignition anomaly: four of Booster B13's 33 Raptor engines failed to complete ignition in sequence. SpaceX identified the root cause (pre-conditioner issue per Space.com and Spaceflight Now) and performed corrections over six days. The new launch window opens 23 July 2026. All downstream open IFT-13 predictions (Ship 30 water landing, booster drone landing, Starlink deployment) implicitly require a clean booster ignition, providing an internal probability floor. No Polymarket sub-market for this early milestone; historical SpaceX post-identified-abort success rate is >90%, minus residual new-anomaly risk yields own calibration of 78%.

Data basis for this prediction

SpaceX IFT-13 Abort 16. Juli 2026: 4 Raptor-Zündausfälle post-ignition (Space.com, Spaceflight Now, 16.07.2026)
SpaceX: Neues Startfenster IFT-13 ab 23. Juli 2026 (SpaceX Statement, 17.07.2026)
IFT-11 und IFT-12: Vollzündungs-Erfolge als historische Referenz (SpaceX-Webcast-Protokolle 2025/26)

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] SpaceX Starship IFT-13 abortete am 23. Juli 2026 erneut beim zweiten Versuch – Booster 20 zündete die Raptor-Triebwerke nicht vollständig. SpaceX-Moderator Dan Huot bestätigte im Webcast: 'We did trigger a hold on the booster that aborted our liftoff as we were starting to light those Raptor engines.' (NASASpaceFlight.com, Space.com)

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