SpaceX Starship Flight 14 (IFT-14): Fully successful mission with Mechazilla booster catch AND Ship re-entry/landing by September 30, 2026 (confirmed by SpaceX webcast or press release)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. July 2026
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Predicted for 30. September 2026
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Based on: Speculative
The existing open forecast only covers IFT-14's first launch attempt by Q3 2026. This forecast goes further: both primary objectives (booster catch and Ship re-entry) must be achieved in a single flight. SpaceX first successfully caught the booster at IFT-12; Ship re-entry remains iterative. Full reusability in one flight is SpaceX's stated goal but has not been consistently achieved. No Polymarket contract for this specific milestone; own estimate: ~30%.
Data basis for this prediction
- SpaceX Starship Flight 13 Webcast: Booster-Fang erfolgreich, Ship-Wiedereintritt teilweise (2026)
- Bestehende offene Prognose (Cassandra.news): SpaceX Starship IFT-14 Erster Startversuch bis 30. September 2026
- SpaceX.com: Vollständige Wiederverwendbarkeit als Entwicklungsziel (Starship-Programmseite)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] IFT-14 führte keinen Mechazilla-Boosterfang durch. Laut Quellen waren Booster 21 und Ship 41 für Wasserspritzlandungen (splashdown) vorgesehen; kein Mechazilla-Catch versucht. Quellen: Space.com Live-Updates, Satnews, SpaceX-Webcast.
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✦ AI
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