SpaceX Starship Flight 13 launches successfully and deploys V3 Starlink satellites as planned by 1 September 2026 (confirmed by SpaceX press release or NASA)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 25. August 2026
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Predicted for 1. September 2026
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Based on: Speculative
SpaceX Starship Flight 13 is reportedly imminent as of 25 August 2026 (Space.com) and carries real V3 Starlink payloads for the first time. Flight 12 (22 May 2026) was largely successful. SpaceX improves reliability consistently across the test flight series; after 12 flights the system is markedly more mature. Full mission success (satellite deployment + booster return) is the most demanding criterion. Risks: new payload type, thermal shield performance on re-entry. No prediction market quotes; model assigns 60% probability for fully successful mission.
Data basis for this prediction
- Space.com: Starship Flight 13 mit V3-Starlinks, Start unmittelbar bevorstehend (25. Aug. 2026)
- Wikipedia: Starship Flight Test 12, 22. Mai 2026, weitgehend erfolgreich
- Next Spaceflight: Starship Flight 13 Missionsvorschau (Aug. 2026)
- Wikipedia: Starship Propellant Transfer Demonstration – Flight 14 für Sep. 2026 geplant
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] SpaceX Starship Flight 13 startete am 24. Juli 2026 um 17:51 Uhr CT von Starbase, Texas, und deployete erfolgreich 20 V3-Starlink-Satelliten – deutlich vor dem Stichtag 1. September 2026. Quelle: Space.com / Wikipedia.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
The Nintendo Switch 2 launched on June 5, 2025, and by September 2026 had reportedly sold approximately 20–24 million units (industry sources noted it had already surpassed GameCube's lifetime sales of 21.74M). Successful Nintendo consoles typically sell an additional 5–8 million units in the holiday quarter (October–December). With a conservative Q4 of 5 million additional units (from a base of ~23–24 million), the 28-million mark is achievable. No Polymarket quote; Metaculus implies ~52% at this threshold.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Apple follows its established chip refresh cycle: M4 MacBook Pro announced November 2024 — M5 refresh after 23–24 months in October/November 2026 fits the historical pattern exactly (M1→M2: ~17 months; M2→M3: ~16 months; M3→M4: ~14 months). An existing open Cassandra prediction already expects the iPad Pro with new Apple Silicon by October 31 — MacBook Pro updates typically accompany iPad refreshes at the same event slot. 9to5Mac and Bloomberg reported M5 MacBook Pro leaks for H2 2026. Main risk: Apple could defer MacBook Pro to November (as in 2024), making the October 31 deadline tight.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Samsung announced Intelligent Eyewear for 'Fall 2026' at Galaxy Unpacked London (July 2026). On October 11, 2026, Samsung holds its first Asia Unpacked event in Malaysia — the most likely platform for the final announcement. Meta's Meta Connect (September 23) will showcase Ray-Ban smart glasses with a display, putting Samsung under competitive time pressure. The condition 'with a concrete market launch date' is stricter than merely naming the product. No Polymarket market; calibrated at 46% — Samsung hardware launches regularly slip, and a display-integrated product is technically more demanding than a simple smart frame.