📈 Economy · Next Week

S&P Global / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI August 2026 Final (release September 1, 2026): Result below 50.0 points (contraction)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 29. August 2026 · Predicted for 1. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

70%

UK Manufacturing PMI has been predominantly below 50 (contraction) since Q3 2025. The flash reading for August 2026 was preliminarily around 46–47 points. Post-Brexit frictions, weak European export demand, and US Section 122 tariffs (10% global tariff from 2026) weigh on the sector. The parallel UK Services PMI (open prediction: >52.0) shows services outperforming — the classic divergence pattern. No Polymarket market found for this specific threshold.

Data basis for this prediction

US Section 122 Importzoll 10 % ab 2026 nach IEEPA-Urteil (CFR Tariff Tracker / iContainers, Juli 2026)
UK Manufacturing PMI war seit Q3 2025 überwiegend in Kontraktion (S&P Global / CIPS, historische Daten)
Offene Plattform-Vorhersage UK Services PMI Aug 2026 >52,0 Punkte (Divergenz-Kontext)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] S&P Global / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI August 2026 Final bei 51,5 Punkten – über 50,0 Punkten, also in der Expansionszone, keine Kontraktion. Quelle: Investing.com / S&P Global, 1. September 2026.

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