S&P 500 (^GSPC) closes above 7,700 points on 31 July 2026
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 17. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
The S&P 500 is at 7,554.60 on 17 July 2026. A close above 7,700 by end of July requires +1.9% over two weeks – broadly feasible in a dense earnings season (Alphabet 22 July, Tesla 22 July, Meta 29 July, Microsoft 29 July, Amazon 30 July). Polymarket assigns ~62% probability to SPY above $760 by end of July (≈ S&P 500 above 7,600); the 7,700 target is materially more ambitious. The Fed decision on 30 July is widely expected to be a non-event (Polymarket: 95% for no change). Risks: geopolitical escalation in the Middle East/Hormuz, disappointing large-cap earnings, a weak US GDP Q2 advance estimate (30 July) or hotter-than-expected Core PCE data (31 July).
Data basis for this prediction
- S&P 500 Schlussstand 17.07.2026: 7.554,60 Punkte (Investing.com / Yahoo Finance, 17.07.2026)
- Polymarket: ~62 % für SPY >$760 bis Ende Juli 2026 (impliziert S&P 500 >7.600); Fed No-Change 95 % (Polymarket, Stand Juli 2026)
- Earnings-Kalender: Alphabet/Tesla 22.07., Meta/MSFT 29.07., Amazon 30.07.; Fed 30.07., GDP-Q2 30.07., Core PCE 31.07.
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Der S&P 500 schloss am 31. Juli 2026 bei 7.489,72 Punkten (Quelle: Investing.com) – rund 2,7 % unter der Zielmarke von 7.700. Im gesamten Juli 2026 verlor der Index –0,79 %. Hauptgründe für das Verfehlen: (1) Geopolitische Eskalation (Iran-Konflikt), die als Risiko explizit genannt worden war; (2) starker Einbruch im Halbleitersektor – Micron Technology fiel in einer Woche um 13,3 % (Forbes/SearchResults); (3) Der Index stand am 17. Juli bei 7.554,60 und fiel bis Monatsende weiter ab, statt die benötigten +1,9 % zuzulegen. Die Earnings der Magnificent-7-Firmen übertrafen zwar die Schätzungen (88 % der S&P-Firmen schlugen Erwartungen), reichten aber nicht aus, um die makroökonomischen und geopolitischen Gegenwinds zu kompensieren.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.