📈 Economy · Next Week

S&P 500 (^GSPC) closes above 7,550 points on July 31, 2026

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

50%

The S&P 500 closed at ~7,437 on July 20. The week of July 28–31 sees five of the largest US tech companies report: MSFT (Jul 29), META (Jul 29), AMZN (Jul 30), AAPL (Jul 30), and GOOGL (Jul 22). Polymarket prices MSFT beat at 93%, GOOGL at 97%. Additional macro catalysts: US Q2 GDP Advance Estimate (Jul 30, open prediction: >7% annualized), Eurostat Flash GDP (Jul 30), and FOMC (Jul 29, hold expected). Reaching 7,550 requires ~+1.5%. Counterrisk: 'buy the rumor, sell the news' after already elevated expectations.

Data basis for this prediction

S&P 500 Schlussstand 20.07.2026: ca. 7.437 Punkte (Bloomberg)
Polymarket: MSFT 93 %, GOOGL 97 % EPS-Beat-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Stand 21.07.2026)
US BIP Q2 2026 Advance Estimate: 30. Juli (BEA); FOMC 29. Juli (Fed)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Der S&P 500 schloss am 31. Juli 2026 bei 7.489,72 Punkten – damit fehlten rund 60 Punkte bis zur Schwelle von 7.550. Der Index legte zwar ca. +0,7 % zu (statt der für die Vorhersage benötigten ~+1,5 %), wurde aber gebremst: Amazon sprang stark, Apple fiel deutlich, und steigende Ölpreise schürten erneut Inflationssorgen. Das 'Buy the rumor, sell the news'-Risiko, das in der Vorhersage als Gegenrisiko genannt wurde, materialisierte sich teilweise – insbesondere bei Apple. Quellen: CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/stock-market-today-live-updates.html), Washington Post 7/31/2026, Bloomberg 7/30–31/2026.

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

S&P 500 (SPX) closes above 7,500 on Friday, 13 November 2026 (confirmed via NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 14 November 2026, 10:00 ET)

The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.

62%

Next Week · Predicted for 13. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

US Consumer Price Index (headline CPI) for October 2026 exceeds 3.7 percent year-on-year — BLS release November 10, 2026, 8:30 AM ET (confirmed by BLS or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.

65%

Next Week · Predicted for 10. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Gold (XAU/USD Spot) closes above $4,400 per ounce on 31 December 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or Kitco by 1 January 2027)

Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.

32%

Next Year · Predicted for 31. Dec 2026