📈 Economy · Next Month

S&P 500 (^GSPC) closes above 7,800 points on September 30, 2026

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 6. September 2026 · Predicted for 30. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

54%

Current level: 7,719 (Sep 4, 2026). Reaching 7,800 requires ~+1.1% — modest but relevant headwinds: ECB rate hike expected Sep 10 (+25bp to 2.50%, consensus 65 economists per Reuters poll); US CPI Sep 11 (consensus 3.4% YoY, above Fed target); FOMC Sep 15–16 (three dissenters favoring a hike per July 2026 minutes). Kalshi prices S&P 8,000 for 2026 at ~50%; a 7,800 level by end of September is consistent with this. Probability ~54%.

Data basis for this prediction

S&P 500 Schlussstand 4. Sep 2026: 7.719 Punkte (S&P Global/Bloomberg)
Kalshi: S&P 500 ueber 8.000 in 2026 = ~50 % (kalshi.com, Stand 5. Sep 2026)
Reuters Oekonomenumfrage: EZB +25 Bp am 10. Sep 2026 Konsens 65/65 (fxstreet.com, 3. Sep 2026)
FOMC Juli 2026 Protokoll: 3 Mitglieder votierten fuer Zinserhoehung (federalreserve.gov)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Der S&P 500 schloss am 30. September 2026 bei 7.651,54 Punkten – damit deutlich unter der Schwelle von 7.800. Der Index verlor im September insgesamt ca. 0,5 %, obwohl er am 4. September noch bei ~7.719 Punkten stand. Als Haupttreiber gelten steigende US-Treasury-Renditen (die Aktien unter Druck setzten) sowie ein schwacher Wochenverlauf trotz leicht unter Erwartungen liegender Inflationsdaten. Quellen: StatMuse (https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/s-and-p-500-close-by-day-in-september-2026), CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/29/stock-market-today-live-updates.html), Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-wednesday-september-30-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-080339262.html)

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