S&P 500 (^GSPC) closes above 7,250 points on July 25, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. July 2026
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Predicted for 25. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
The S&P 500 closed at 7,408.30 on July 23, 2026 (–1.21%). On July 24, the index is expected to fall another 1.5–2% due to the Tesla shock (–14.5% AH; ~2% S&P weight) and broad tech selling, pushing it to ~7,200–7,300. On July 25, two stabilising factors are active: the June 2026 US Core PCE release (08:30 EDT; Cassandra open: ≥3.0%) and anticipation of strong Big Tech earnings the week of July 28 (Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon already predicted). Stabilisation above 7,250 is the base case. Kalshi shows 77% probability of unchanged Fed rate on July 29 – no immediate rate-shock risk. Own estimate: 62%.
Data basis for this prediction
- S&P 500 Schlusskurs 23.07.2026: 7.408,30 (–1,21 %), Trading Economics
- Tesla Q2 2026: GAAP-EPS 0,32 USD, Aktie –14,5 % AH, S&P-Gewicht ~2 % – Teslarati / Electrek
- Kalshi: Fed hält Zins bei 3,50–3,75 % am 29. Juli mit 77 % Wahrscheinlichkeit – CNBC 09.07.2026
- Cassandra: US Core PCE Juni 2026 (25. Juli) und Big-Tech-Earnings Woche 28. Juli als offene Vorhersagen
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] S&P 500 schloss am 24. Juli 2026 (Freitag, letzter Handelstag vor Samstag) bei 7.411,98 Punkten – über der Schwelle von 7.250 (TheStreet, CNBC).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.