📈 Economy · Next Month

Shell plc (NYSE: SHEL) beats the adjusted EPS consensus of approx. USD 2.94 per share in its Q2-2026 results (30 July 2026)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

63%

Shell reported Q1 2026 adjusted earnings of USD 6.9B. Brent rose to approx. USD 88–90/barrel in Q2 (as of 20 July 2026) driven by Iran/Hormuz tensions – well above the Q1 average. Higher crude prices directly improve Shell's upstream margins. Beat rate over past 8 quarters: 6/8. Risk: European refining margin pressure, higher cash taxes. No direct Polymarket contract found.

Data basis for this prediction

Shell Q1 2026: bereinigter Gewinn 6,9 Mrd. USD (Shell Pressemitteilung, April 2026)
Brent Rohöl: ca. 88,10–90,40 USD/Barrel, 17.–20. Juli 2026 (Trading Economics / EIA)
Shell Q2 2026 Konsens bereinigter EPS: ca. 2,94 USD (MarketBeat / Nasdaq.com, Stand 20.7.2026)
Shell Q2 2026 Ergebnistermin: 30. Juli 2026 (Shell IR-Kalender)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

FTSE 100 (UKX) closes above 11,000 points on December 31, 2026

FTSE 100 at approx. 10,532 on July 21 — a multi-year high. Closing above 11,000 by year-end requires +4.4% from current levels. Drivers: (1) Burnham Labour government with infrastructure spending and EU trade rapprochement; (2) Strong GBP (>1.33 confirmed); (3) FTSE overweight in energy (Shell, BP) and commodities (Rio Tinto, BHP) benefiting from elevated oil; (4) UK CPI declining (<3%) opens potential BoE rate cuts from autumn 2026. Risks: US-Iran escalation, global recession. No Polymarket market identified.

53%

Next Year · Predicted for 31. Dec 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM) beats Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $2.04 per share (July 22, 2026, before market open)

PMI reports Q2 2026 before market open on July 22. Zacks consensus: $2.04 (+6.8% YoY). IQOS volumes accelerating globally; Zil.nova gaining US traction. PMI beat adjusted EPS in all four prior quarters, avg. positive surprise 4.9% — no Polymarket market found, historical beat rate is primary anchor. After a $500M RBH charge, PMI already raised its FY2026 EPS outlook.

74%

Tomorrow · Predicted for 22. Jul 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

FTSE 100 (UKX) closes above 10,300 points on July 25, 2026

FTSE 100 stands at approx. 10,532 on July 21 — a multi-year high. A close below 10,300 by July 25 would require a fall of more than 2.2% in 4 trading days. Supporting factors: (1) Positive market reception of PM Burnham (pro-EU trade, infrastructure); (2) Stable UK macro (CPI <3%); (3) Strong Q2 earnings season; (4) FTSE overweight in energy and commodities benefiting from Brent >$88. Geopolitical risks (US-Iran) alone unlikely to cause -2.2% in days. No Polymarket market identified.

77%

Next Week · Predicted for 25. Jul 2026