📈 Economy · Next Month

Shell plc (NYSE: SHEL) beats the adjusted EPS consensus of approx. USD 2.94 per share in its Q2-2026 results (30 July 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

63%

Shell reported Q1 2026 adjusted earnings of USD 6.9B. Brent rose to approx. USD 88–90/barrel in Q2 (as of 20 July 2026) driven by Iran/Hormuz tensions – well above the Q1 average. Higher crude prices directly improve Shell's upstream margins. Beat rate over past 8 quarters: 6/8. Risk: European refining margin pressure, higher cash taxes. No direct Polymarket contract found.

Data basis for this prediction

Shell Q1 2026: bereinigter Gewinn 6,9 Mrd. USD (Shell Pressemitteilung, April 2026)
Brent Rohöl: ca. 88,10–90,40 USD/Barrel, 17.–20. Juli 2026 (Trading Economics / EIA)
Shell Q2 2026 Konsens bereinigter EPS: ca. 2,94 USD (MarketBeat / Nasdaq.com, Stand 20.7.2026)
Shell Q2 2026 Ergebnistermin: 30. Juli 2026 (Shell IR-Kalender)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Shell plc veröffentlichte am 30. Juli 2026 seine Q2-2026-Ergebnisse und übertraf den bereinigten EPS-Konsens deutlich. Der bereinigte EPS (CCS-Basis, bereinigt um Sondereffekte) lag bei 3,52 USD je ADS gegenüber dem Zacks-Konsens von 3,23 USD – ein Beat von +0,29 USD (+9 %). Der bereinigte Konzerngewinn betrug 9,84 Mrd. USD und übertraf damit den Analystenkonses von 8,92 Mrd. USD deutlich sowie mehr als verdoppelt gegenüber 4,26 Mrd. USD im Q2 2025. Treiber waren – wie in der Vorhersage antizipiert – gestiegene realisierte Ölpreise infolge Nahost-Spannungen sowie Rekordauslastung der Raffinerien und Rekordproduktion in Brasilien. Ein separater Investing.com-Bericht weist zwar ein GAAP-EPS von 1,76 USD (Konsens 2,80 USD, Miss) aus, jedoch bezieht sich die Vorhersage explizit auf den 'bereinigten' EPS, der klar geschlagen wurde. Quellen: Nasdaq/Zacks ('Shell Q2 Earnings Beat Even as Production & Oil Prices Fall'), Investing.com ('Shell Q2 2026 slides: operational strength drives $9.8B earnings'), IndexBox ('Shell Q2 2026 Earnings: Adjusted Profit More Than Doubles to $9.84 Billion').

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