Shell plc (LSE: SHEL) beats Q2 2026 adjusted earnings consensus of approx. USD 5.5bn (current cost of supplies basis, July 30, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. July 2026
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Predicted for 30. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Shell reports Q2 2026 results on July 30. The adjusted CCS earnings consensus is estimated at approx. USD 5.5–6.0bn, based on the historical quarterly run-rate of ~USD 5.9bn (FY2024 total: ~USD 23.7bn). Key beat drivers: (1) WTI rose to USD 84.42 in July 2026 (+14% over the month) on the US naval blockade — but Q2 billing period is April–June, so average oil prices in Q2 were likely USD 78–82/bbl; (2) integrated gas/LNG benefits from TTF stability (~EUR 58–60/MWh); (3) downstream margins recovering from 2024 weakness. No Polymarket/Kalshi markets found; calibrated on historical beat pattern and oil price trajectory.
Data basis for this prediction
- Shell Q2 2026 Ergebnistermin: 30.07.2026 – Shell Financial Calendar / UK Investing.com (22.07.2026)
- WTI 84,42 USD/bbl am 22.07.2026 (+14 % in 30 Tagen) – Fortune (22.07.2026)
- TTF European Gas Front-Month: ~58,5–59,7 EUR/MWh am 22.07.2026 – Investing.com (22.07.2026)
- Shell FY2024 bereinigter Gewinn: ~23,7 Mrd. USD (~5,9 Mrd. USD/Quartal) – Shell Annual Results 2024
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Shell meldete am 30. Juli 2026 einen bereinigten Nachsteuergewinn (CCS-Basis) von 9,84 Mrd. USD – weit über dem in der Vorhersage genannten Konsens von ~5,5 Mrd. USD und auch deutlich über dem tatsächlichen Analysten-Konsens von ~8,92 Mrd. USD (EPS-Konsens: 3,23 USD, tatsächlich: 3,52 USD). Haupttreiber war der Nahost-Krieg, der den Brent-Rohölpreis in Q2 2026 auf durchschnittlich 104 USD/bbl trieb (gegenüber den in der Prognose angenommenen 78–82 USD/bbl) – der Ölpreisanstieg fiel also erheblich stärker aus und traf bereits in den Q2-Abrechnungszeitraum, entgegen der Annahme in der Begründung. Der Free Cash Flow erreichte 17,5 Mrd. USD. Die Richtungsaussage 'Shell schlägt den Konsens' ist klar eingetreten, der Ausschlag war sogar massiver als erwartet. Quellen: investing.com ('Shell Q2 2026 slides: operational strength drives $9.8B earnings'), finance.yahoo.com ('Shell Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates as Higher Oil Prices Boost Results'), qz.com ('Shell Q2 2026 earnings double amid Middle East war oil surge').
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