Shell plc (LSE: SHEL) beats Q2 2026 adjusted earnings consensus of approx. USD 5.5bn (current cost of supplies basis, July 30, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. July 2026
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Predicted for 30. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Shell reports Q2 2026 results on July 30. The adjusted CCS earnings consensus is estimated at approx. USD 5.5–6.0bn, based on the historical quarterly run-rate of ~USD 5.9bn (FY2024 total: ~USD 23.7bn). Key beat drivers: (1) WTI rose to USD 84.42 in July 2026 (+14% over the month) on the US naval blockade — but Q2 billing period is April–June, so average oil prices in Q2 were likely USD 78–82/bbl; (2) integrated gas/LNG benefits from TTF stability (~EUR 58–60/MWh); (3) downstream margins recovering from 2024 weakness. No Polymarket/Kalshi markets found; calibrated on historical beat pattern and oil price trajectory.
Data basis for this prediction
- Shell Q2 2026 Ergebnistermin: 30.07.2026 – Shell Financial Calendar / UK Investing.com (22.07.2026)
- WTI 84,42 USD/bbl am 22.07.2026 (+14 % in 30 Tagen) – Fortune (22.07.2026)
- TTF European Gas Front-Month: ~58,5–59,7 EUR/MWh am 22.07.2026 – Investing.com (22.07.2026)
- Shell FY2024 bereinigter Gewinn: ~23,7 Mrd. USD (~5,9 Mrd. USD/Quartal) – Shell Annual Results 2024
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
PayPal reports Q2 2026 results after market close on July 28. Consensus from multiple sources (Yahoo Finance, Zacks, Barchart, TipRanks) converges on USD 1.28/share non-GAAP, aligned with company guidance ('high-single-digit decline vs. Q2 2025: USD 1.40 → ~USD 1.27–1.28'). Q1 2026 actual: USD 1.34 vs. consensus USD 1.27 (+USD 0.07 beat). Under new CEO leadership, PayPal has beaten in 3 of last 4 quarters; Fastlane and PayPal Ads support margins. Main risk: guidance already anchors consensus near midpoint, leaving limited upside buffer — an in-line report would not qualify as a beat. Kalshi market not accessible (429 rate-limit).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
TotalEnergies reports Q2 2026 results on July 23, 2026 (8:00 AM CET). MarketBeat consensus is USD 2.68/share. Bull case: (1) Brent averaged well above Q2 2025 (when EPS was USD 1.57, a miss), (2) improving downstream margins, (3) BofA flagged 'better-than-feared' Q2 (MarketScreener, July 2026), (4) Q1 2026 adj. net income USD 5.4bn / EPS USD 2.45 beat consensus by +17.8%. Bear case: weaker LNG trading margins. WTI at USD 84.42 (July 22) supported by US naval blockade of Iranian ports since July 14. No Polymarket/Kalshi markets found; estimate based on analyst consensus and historical beat pattern.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
AstraZeneca reports Q2 2026 results on July 27, 2026. Consensus from 35 analysts stands at USD 2.50/ADS (Defense World); some sources cite up to USD 2.60. Q1 2026 core EPS was USD 2.58 (consensus: USD 2.52, beat: +USD 0.06). AZN reconfirmed FY2026 guidance for low double-digit core EPS growth at CER — a strong forward signal. Growth drivers: Tagrisso, Enhertu, Lynparza, and emerging CVRM franchise. AZN has beaten consensus in 4 of the last 5 quarters. Headwind: minor consensus reduction by Erste Group Bank on July 22, 2026.