Swiss National Bank (SNB) leaves the key interest rate unchanged at 0.00% on September 25, 2026, confirmed via SNB press release or Bloomberg
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. August 2026
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Predicted for 25. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The SNB has kept its key rate at 0.00% since March 2026 with no change signals. Conditional inflation forecast for 2026–2028: 0.6–0.7% – far below any action threshold. Yahoo Finance/NewTrading (August 2026): no rate change expected through end of 2026. CHF appreciation pressure could even force SNB FX interventions. Futures consensus implies >90% probability for unchanged rate. September is the third of four annual SNB meetings.
Data basis for this prediction
- NewTrading/Yahoo Finance: 'SNB to hold rates at zero on Sep 25 and throughout 2026' (Aug 2026)
- SNB Bedingte Inflationsprognose 2026: 0,6 %; 2027: 0,7 % (SNB Bulletin Juni 2026)
- SNB März & Juni 2026: Leitzins 0,00 % jeweils bestätigt (SNB-Pressemitteilungen)
- CHF-Terminmarkt: <5 % implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit einer SNB-Zinsänderung Sep 2026 (Bloomberg)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] SNB belässt Leitzins am 24. September 2026 bei 0,00%. Bestätigt durch watson.ch, SRF, Moneycab – keine Änderung der Geldpolitik.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.