Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeps cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at the Board meeting on September 29, 2026 (confirmed by RBA press release by September 29, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 4. September 2026
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Predicted for 29. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The RBA faces a genuinely live decision on September 29, 2026: Australian CPI stands at 3.5% YoY (trimmed mean: 3.6%) — well above the 2–3% target band. NAB forecasts a hike to 4.60%; CBA and Westpac vote for hold. Around 44% of economists surveyed by Finder.com expect at least one more hike before year-end. The majority view (56%) is hold; we follow consensus but flag elevated uncertainty. The RBA is likely to await further disinflation evidence before acting.
Data basis for this prediction
- Finder.com RBA Cash Rate Forecast September 2026 (Stand 4. September 2026)
- Aussie.com.au Expertenprognosen RBA-Zinsen (September 2026)
- ABC News RBA August 2026 Entscheidung (11. August 2026): Hold bei 4,35%
- RBA.gov.au Zinsentscheid-Kalender 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] RBA hat den Leitzins NICHT unverändert belassen, sondern auf 4,60 % angehoben. Prognose 'unverändert bei 4,35 %' ist damit widerlegt.
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✦ AI
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The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.