Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at its 28/29 September 2026 meeting (confirmed by RBA press release)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 25. August 2026
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Predicted for 29. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
RBA held rates unanimously at 4.35% in August 2026 and signalled no movement until 2027. Australia's four major banks and a majority of economists forecast no cut before mid-2027. Governor Bullock explicitly keeps the door open for further hikes if inflation risks materialise. Underlying inflation still exceeds the 2–3% target band. OIS swap-implied probability for a September hold is ~90%. No explicit Polymarket quotes for the RBA available.
Data basis for this prediction
- Finder.com.au: RBA Cash Rate Prognosen – Banken erwarten kein Cut vor 2027 (Aug. 2026)
- ABC News: RBA hält Leitzins bei 4,35% in August 2026, einstimmig (11. Aug. 2026)
- SBS News: RBA August 2026 Zinsentscheidung live – unverändert (11. Aug. 2026)
- RBA.gov.au: Nächstes Treffen 28.–29. September 2026 (Coming Up-Kalender)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] RBA hat beim Treffen am 28./29. September 2026 den Leitzins auf 4,60 % erhöht, nicht bei 4,35 % belassen.
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✦ AI
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