⚽ Sports · Next Week

Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) wins Tour de France 2026 Stage 16 (ITT Évian-les-Bains–Thonon-les-Bains, 26.1 km, July 21)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. July 2026 · Predicted for 21. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

37%

Stage 16 is the Tour's only ITT: 26.1 km with 500m elevation (9 km climb, then flat run to Thonon). Cycling analysis (Velo/Outside Online): 'Evenepoel is favored to keep his Tour dominance against the clock intact.' Evenepoel won the 2024 TdF ITT, is one of the world's best time trialists and sits 3:30 behind Pogacar (3rd GC). He has every incentive to target the stage win. Estimated win probabilities: Evenepoel ~37%, Pogacar ~30%, Vingegaard ~20%, Others ~13%.

Data basis for this prediction

Velo Outside Online: 'TdF Stage 16 Preview – Evenepoel favored for the ITT' (2026)
cyclingstage.com: Etappe 16 Profil – 26,1 km, 500 Hm, erster Start 13:00 CEST (21.07.2026)
NBC Sports: GC Standings – Evenepoel Platz 3, +3:30 auf Pogacar (Stand 12.07.2026)
mummucycling.com/roadmancycling.com: Stage 16 ITT Route & Höhenprofil TdF 2026

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Remco Evenepoel fährt seit der Saison 2026 für Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe, nicht mehr für Soudal Quick-Step. Der Wechsel wurde im August 2025 bestätigt (Cyclingnews, Forbes, Red Bull Newsroom). Ein Sieg 'für Soudal Quick-Step' ist strukturell unmöglich.

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