📈 Economy · Next Week

RatingDog (ex-Caixin) China Services PMI August 2026 above 51.0 points (release September 4, 2026, confirmed by S&P Global/RatingDog press release or Bloomberg)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 31. August 2026 · Predicted for 4. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

60%

The RatingDog China Services PMI plunged to 50.4 in July 2026 — from 54.1 in June and far below the 53.7 consensus (weakest since September 2024). The Composite Index fell to 50.8. After such a sharp drop, a moderate mean-reversion in August is statistically likely; services exports continued to grow solidly in July. A return above 51.0 appears plausible at approximately 60% probability. A contraction below 50.0 seems unlikely as state stimulus measures are taking effect.

Data basis for this prediction

RatingDog China Services PMI Juli 2026: 50,4 (Konsens 53,7; Vormonat 54,1) — Investing.com, TradingView, 5. August 2026
China Composite PMI Juli 2026: 50,8 — schwächster Wert seit 12 Monaten (Investing.com, August 2026)
S&P Global / RatingDog China Pressemitteilung, Serviceleistungen Juli 2026 (pmi.spglobal.com)
RatingDog China Services PMI Veröffentlichungskalender: August-Daten erscheinen 4. September 2026

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] RatingDog China Services PMI August 2026: 51,4 – über 51,0. Veröffentlicht am 4. September 2026. Quelle: TradingEconomics / S&P Global.

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

S&P 500 (^GSPC) closes above 7,450 points on 30 September 2026 (confirmed by NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 30 September 2026)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.

73%

Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

US Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds target range by 25 basis points on 16 September 2026 (FOMC decision)

Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.

53%

Next Week · Predicted for 16. Sep 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

DAX 40 (XETRA) closes above 26,000 points on 30 September 2026 (confirmed by XETRA closing price or Bloomberg by 30 September 2026)

The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.

48%

Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026