Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) beats Q3 FY2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $2.20 per share (July 29, 2026)
Partial Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. July 2026
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Predicted for 29. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Qualcomm reports Q3 FY2026 results (April-June 2026) on July 29, 2026. Own guidance is Non-GAAP EPS $2.10-$2.30 (midpoint $2.20); analyst consensus at approx. $2.20-2.27. Qualcomm benefits in 2026 from strong demand for AI edge chips (Snapdragon platform) in smartphones and automotive, and from diversification away from smartphone dependence. Historically, Qualcomm has beaten consensus EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Risk factor: potential slowdown in the global smartphone market. No Polymarket market directly available. Own estimate: 65% probability of beat.
Data basis for this prediction
- Qualcomm Q3 FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS Guidance: 2,10–2,30 USD; Konsens ca. 2,20–2,27 USD (MarketBeat/Barchart, Juli 2026)
- Qualcomm Q3 FY2026 Umsatz-Konsens: ca. 9,68 Mrd. USD (Guidance: 9,2–10,0 Mrd. USD)
- Qualcomm Q3 FY2026 Ergebnistermin: 29. Juli 2026 nach US-Börsenschluss (investor.qualcomm.com)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Partial Hit
Qualcomm berichtete am 29. Juli 2026 einen Non-GAAP-EPS von 2,21 USD (Quellen: TradingView, Qualcomm-Pressemitteilung). Damit wurde der in der Vorhersage genannte Konsenswert von 'ca. 2,20 USD' hauchdünn übertroffen (+0,01 USD). Der tatsächliche Analysten-Konsens lag jedoch laut Alphastreet und Shacknews bei ca. 2,23 USD, den Qualcomm um 0,02 USD verfehlte. Das Ergebnis war also je nach Referenzwert ein Micro-Beat (vs. 2,20 USD) oder ein Micro-Miss (vs. 2,23 USD). Revenue schlug die Erwartungen ($9,95 Mrd. gg. ~$9,68 Mrd.). Die Aktie fiel nach Börsenschluss dennoch ~7 %, da der Markt das EPS-Ergebnis als Enttäuschung wertete. Quellen: Shacknews ('miss EPS estimates'), Alphastreet (EPS-Konsens $2,23), TradingView (Non-GAAP EPS $2,21 reported).
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CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.
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ARM Holdings reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) on November 4 after market close. EPS consensus: $0.47; revenue consensus ~$1.38B (Theta Research, Oct 29). ARM is the dominant CPU IP licensor for AI servers (Neoverse), smartphones (Apple A-series, Qualcomm), and edge devices — all three segments scaling strongly in 2026. ARM has beaten EPS consensus in each of the last four quarters, driven by AI infrastructure capex. No direct Polymarket contract; analogue: S&P 500 Q3 2026 beat rate ~71%. Key risks: export control escalation (UK/US vs. China), hyperscaler capex delays, or HBM4 demand plateau.