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Primož Roglič (Red Bull Bora-Hansgrohe, SLO) wins Vuelta a España 2026 Stage 18 ITT (El Puerto de Santa María → Jerez, 32.5 km, September 10, 2026)
Probability
40%
After Tadej Pogačar's withdrawal in Stage 8 (collarbone fracture, concussion, August 29, 2026), Enric Mas (Movistar) leads the GC with Roglič at 2:22. Roglič can reopen the GC race with a strong ITT performance. As a four-time Vuelta winner with world-class time-trialing ability, Roglič is the clear stage favorite on the 32.5 km course. Competition from pure ITT specialists (Küng, Ganna) is possible. No Polymarket odds for Vuelta stage wins; own calibration: 40% Roglič, 25% field candidate, 35% ITT specialist without GC ambitions.
Data basis for this prediction
- Vuelta a España 2026 GC nach Etappe 8: Mas 1., Roglič –2:22 (FloBikes, 29. August 2026)
- Pogačar Aufgabe nach Sturz Etappe 8 (Euronews/NBC Sports/lavuelta.es, 29. August 2026)
- Vuelta 2026 Stage 18: El Puerto de Santa María → Jerez, 32,5 km ITT (lavuelta.es, offizielle Route)
- Roglič: 4× Vuelta-Gesamtsieger, mehrfache ITT-Weltmeisterschaft-Top-Platzierungen (ProCyclingStats)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Roglič gewann das ITT Etappe 18 NICHT. Stefan Küng (Tudor) gewann die Zeitfahretappe. Quelle: esciclismo.com.