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Premier League MD5: Newcastle United FC defeats Hull City AFC at home (St. James' Park, Newcastle, September 19, 2026)
Probability
58%
Newcastle United are home favorites, but Hull City are a surprisingly strong promoted side: the Tigers sit 3rd after four matchdays with 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws, including a 2–2 away at Chelsea) and are unbeaten just like Newcastle. Aggregated bookmaker odds imply Newcastle win probability ~62%, Hull City ~19%, draw ~23%. After adjusting for bookmaker margin and accounting for Hull's strong early-season form, the true Newcastle win probability is estimated at ~58%. Newcastle (5 points from 3 games, unbeaten) benefits from home advantage and superior squad quality; Hull City's manager faces their first away test against an established top-6 contender. No Cassandra contract covers this match.
Data basis for this prediction
- Hull City PL 2026/27: Platz 3, 8 Punkte aus 4 Spielen, ungeschlagen (LatestLY/Wikipedia, 17.09.2026)
- Newcastle United vs Hull City: aggregierte Buchmacherquoten implizieren ~62 % Newcastle-Sieg (BettingNews/FotMob, 17.09.2026)
- Hull City 2:2 auswärts bei Chelsea, MD4 (Wikipedia 2026/27 Hull City season)
- Newcastle United: 5 Punkte aus 3 Spielen, MD1–MD4 PL 2026/27
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.