🍾 Beverages · Next Month

Pernod Ricard S.A. (EPA: RI) reports an organic net revenue decline of more than 3.0% year-on-year in its FY2025/26 full-year results (July 2025–June 2026, publication approx. September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 5. September 2026 · Predicted for 19. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

68%

Pernod Ricard recorded an organic revenue decline of −5.4% in FY2024/25 — the steepest slump since 2009 — due to persistent China destocking, weak Asia travel retail, and a subdued US premium market. For FY2025/26 (year-end June 30, 2026), early indicators show a bottoming in China but no full recovery. Peer Rémy Cointreau reported organic −9.3% for H1 FY2025/26 (Bloomberg, Feb. 2026). Bernstein consensus estimates Pernod Ricard FY2025/26 at organic −3% to −4%. Pernod Ricard typically publishes annual results in mid-September (FY2024/25 result: September 12, 2025). A decline of >3% is the base case; a return to positive territory appears premature. Confirmed by Pernod Ricard press release or Bloomberg by September 30, 2026.

Data basis for this prediction

Pernod Ricard FY 2024/25 organisch: −5,4 % (Pernod Ricard Pressemitteilung / Bloomberg, Sept. 2025)
Rémy Cointreau H1 FY2025/26 organisch: −9,3 % (Peer-Vergleich, Bloomberg Feb. 2026)
Bernstein Bloomberg-Konsens Pernod Ricard FY2025/26: organisch −3 bis −4 % (Aug. 2026)
Pernod Ricard IR-Kalender: FY2024/25-Ergebnis veröffentlicht 12. Sept. 2025 → FY2025/26 erwartet Mitte Sept. 2026

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Pernod Ricard meldete am 27. August 2026 für FY2025/26 einen organischen Nettoumsatzrückgang von -3,9 %, also mehr als 3,0 %. Quelle: Pernod Ricard FY26 Financial Communication PDF, pernod-ricard.com.

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Analyst consensus for Q3 2026: EPS 0.2998 USD (~0.30 USD) with revenue of 2.49 billion USD (MarketBeat / TradingView, as of October 2026). Monster Beverage has beaten EPS consensus in a majority of recent quarters and continues to benefit from international market expansion in the energy drink segment. No active Polymarket or Kalshi market found for this event; beat probability estimated at ~65% based on historical beat rate and current consensus positioning.

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