💻 Technology · Next Year

OpenAI releases a publicly accessible GPT-5-generation language model by December 31, 2026 (confirmed by OpenAI press release or availability via api.openai.com)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. December 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

72%

GPT-4 was released in March 2023 — by end-2026 that would be 3.5 years for a successor generation, historically a very long gap for OpenAI. Competitors are applying massive pressure: Anthropic Claude 5 (Cassandra prediction: by September 30, 2026) and Google's new Gemini Pro flagship (Cassandra prediction: by August 31, 2026) are already forecast. Metaculus and Polymarket estimated ~60–70% probability for GPT-5 releasing in 2025 as of late 2024; extending the horizon to end-2026 pushes the probability higher still. CEO Sam Altman repeatedly signalled major model capacity expansions in 2025. A delay beyond 2026 seems unlikely given competitive pressure and investor expectations.

Data basis for this prediction

Metaculus: GPT-5-Release-Wahrscheinlichkeit 2025/2026 – historische Marktdaten (metaculus.com)
Polymarket: OpenAI GPT-5 Prediction-Market Schätzungen 2024 (polymarket.com)
Bloomberg/Reuters: OpenAI GPT-5-Entwicklungsberichte 2024–2025 (mehrere Quellen)
OpenAI Blog: Sam Altman zu Modellroadmap und Kapazitätserweiterungen 2025 (openai.com)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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