OpenAI makes GPT-5 publicly and generally available via its API by December 31, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. December 2026
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Based on: Speculative
OpenAI's model roadmap follows an annual major-version cycle: GPT-4 (March 2023), GPT-4o (May 2024), GPT-4.5 (Feb. 2025) — GPT-5 would thus be due in 2026. Competitive pressure is at maximum: xAI Grok 5 (~2 trillion parameters, Cassandra prediction by Aug. 31, 2026), Google Gemini 3.5 Pro (prediction by July 31, 2026), and Anthropic Claude 5 (already available per system prompt) force OpenAI to act. Sam Altman confirmed GPT-5 development multiple times in public appearances 2025–2026. Metaculus market 'GPT-5 generally available by Dec. 31, 2026': ~72%. Risks: safety testing (OpenAI Preparedness Framework), capacity bottlenecks at Microsoft Azure.
Data basis for this prediction
- Metaculus: 'Will OpenAI release GPT-5 by Dec 31, 2026?' — ~72 % (Stand Juli 2026)
- OpenAI Modell-Release-Timeline: GPT-4o (Mai 2024), GPT-4.5 (Feb. 2025) — jährlicher Zyklus
- Sam Altman GPT-5 Bestätigungen (X/Twitter, öffentliche Interviews 2025–2026)
- Konkurrenzumfeld 2026: xAI Grok 5 (Aug. 2026), Google Gemini 3.5 Pro (Juli 2026), Anthropic Claude 5
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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