OpenAI files public S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC by August 31, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 19. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. August 2026
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Based on: Speculative
OpenAI has filed its IPO prospectus confidentially (Draft Registration Statement) with the SEC; underwriters are Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley; current valuation is ~$730bn (Fortune, July 2, 2026). Reports indicate OpenAI targets a market debut in September 2026. Under SEC procedures, the public S-1 filing must precede the IPO roadshow by at least 15 days — a public filing by end of August would be the necessary step for a September listing. Metaculus estimates an OpenAI IPO in H2 2026 at ~45–50%. Risks: regulatory review (FTC AI scrutiny), market volatility (VIX 18.77 on July 17), internal governance issues from past leadership disputes.
Data basis for this prediction
- OpenAI: vertrauliche IPO-Einreichung SEC; Goldman Sachs + Morgan Stanley als Banken (Fortune, 02.07.2026)
- OpenAI-Bewertung ~730 Mrd. USD; Ziel-Börsengang September 2026 (AI News Today, 14.07.2026)
- SEC: öffentliche S-1 mind. 15 Tage vor IPO-Roadshow (SEC.gov Registration Process)
- Metaculus: OpenAI-Börsengang H2 2026 = ca. 45–50 % (Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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Polymarket sees 93% probability of an MSFT beat on adjusted EPS of $4.21. Microsoft has beaten EPS consensus in 17 of the last 18 quarters; Q3 FY2026 delivered $4.27 vs. $4.06 expected. Azure Cloud growth (separate open prediction: >30% YoY), GitHub Copilot monetization, and Azure OpenAI services drive earnings. Revenue consensus: ~$86.7B. The market prices a very high beat probability as MSFT structurally benefits from AI infrastructure investment.
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According to research, Anthropic has confidentially filed an S-1 with the SEC and is working with leading investment banks. Polymarket shows 46% probability for an IPO launch by September 2026, implying a higher probability for the full year. 2026 is tracking as a record year for technology IPOs (SpaceX IPO in June 2026 was the largest ever). Anthropic was most recently valued at approx. $61B. Counter-case: Anthropic may remain private; an IPO process can easily slip into 2027. Polymarket anchor (46% by Sept.) implies approx. 52% for December; slight upward deviation as the window is larger.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
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