💻 Technology
· Next Year
OpenAI files a public IPO prospectus (S-1) with the U.S. SEC by November 30, 2026
Probability
54%
OpenAI (valuation $852B, ARR ~$23.5B for 2026) reportedly filed confidentially with the SEC in June 2026 and targets a fall 2026 IPO per Forbes/Fortune. Competition with Anthropic's IPO process ($965B valuation) could trigger a first-mover timing race or force both companies to coordinate their calendars. The typical window from confidential to public S-1 filing is 3–6 months from June 2026, implying a public filing by September–December 2026. No Polymarket market found. Risk: regulatory hurdles or strategic delay.
Data basis for this prediction
- Forbes / Fortune: OpenAI vertrauliche SEC-Einreichung Juni 2026, Bewertung 852 Mrd. USD — Herbst-IPO angestrebt
- Forbes: OpenAI ARR ~23,5 Mrd. USD für 2026 — unter Anthropic (47 Mrd.), aber signifikant
- Intellectia: Mega-Cap-AI-IPO-Welle 2026 — OpenAI und Anthropic als Hauptkandidaten (13. Juli 2026)
- CNBC: Anthropic startet IPO-Investorengespräche (15. Juli 2026) — OpenAI-Timing als direkter Referenzpunkt
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.