OpenAI Inc. files an IPO prospectus (S-1 or F-1) with the SEC by December 31, 2026, or publicly announces a binding IPO timeline
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
·
Predicted for 31. December 2026
·
Based on: Speculative
OpenAI completed its restructuring to a Public Benefit Corporation in 2025 — the legally necessary precondition for a stock market listing. Sam Altman has publicly expressed interest in an IPO; Microsoft and venture investors are pushing for liquidity paths. The latest funding round valued OpenAI at ~$300–340 billion. Metaculus calibration implies ~33% probability of an OpenAI IPO by end of 2026. Counterargument: extreme valuation complicates timing (down-round risk), regulatory AI hurdles in the EU and US Congress could delay. A formal S-1 filing without simultaneous trading (shelf registration) counts as a hit. No existing Cassandra prediction for OpenAI.
Data basis for this prediction
- OpenAI PBC-Restrukturierung abgeschlossen 2025 (OpenAI Blog / Reuters 2025)
- OpenAI Bewertung letzte Finanzierungsrunde: ~300–340 Mrd. USD (Bloomberg/WSJ, 2025)
- Metaculus: OpenAI IPO bis Ende 2026 ~33 % (kalibrierte Schätzung, Stand Juli 2026)
- Sam Altman IPO-Aussagen: Bloomberg/WSJ Interviews 2025–2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Apple follows its established chip refresh cycle: M4 MacBook Pro announced November 2024 — M5 refresh after 23–24 months in October/November 2026 fits the historical pattern exactly (M1→M2: ~17 months; M2→M3: ~16 months; M3→M4: ~14 months). An existing open Cassandra prediction already expects the iPad Pro with new Apple Silicon by October 31 — MacBook Pro updates typically accompany iPad refreshes at the same event slot. 9to5Mac and Bloomberg reported M5 MacBook Pro leaks for H2 2026. Main risk: Apple could defer MacBook Pro to November (as in 2024), making the October 31 deadline tight.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Samsung announced Intelligent Eyewear for 'Fall 2026' at Galaxy Unpacked London (July 2026). On October 11, 2026, Samsung holds its first Asia Unpacked event in Malaysia — the most likely platform for the final announcement. Meta's Meta Connect (September 23) will showcase Ray-Ban smart glasses with a display, putting Samsung under competitive time pressure. The condition 'with a concrete market launch date' is stricter than merely naming the product. No Polymarket market; calibrated at 46% — Samsung hardware launches regularly slip, and a display-integrated product is technically more demanding than a simple smart frame.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Google Cloud has been growing at ~28–30% YoY and profitable since Q4 2023. Q4 2024 revenue was $11.96B. On the same growth trajectory, Q3 2026 is estimated at ~$16.5–17.5B. Drivers: AI infrastructure demand (TPUs, Gemini Cloud), enterprise deal closures. No direct Polymarket market found; Wall Street consensus likely ~$16.5–17.5B. Risk: cloud budget compression from rate hikes. Benchmark: open platform prediction for AWS Q3 2026 is >$35B; Google Cloud historically ~45–48% of AWS.