🍾 Beverages · Next Year

Munich Oktoberfest 2026 (September 19 to October 4) records more than 6.5 million visitors

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 11. July 2026 · Predicted for 4. October 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

56%

The 191st Munich Oktoberfest runs September 19 to October 4, 2026 (16 days). 2025 attendance: 6.5 million. PredictHQ forecasts approximately 7.2 million visitors for 2026. Beer prices (announced June 2, 2026): Maß €14.80–€15.90 (+2.38% average vs. 2025) — not a deterrent increase. Drivers: FIFA 2026 World Cup aftermath, rising international bookings, continued normalisation of post-COVID tourism. Risk: physical capacity limit of Theresienwiese (~7M max), weather extremes. No Kalshi/Polymarket market on attendance.

Data basis for this prediction

Stadt München (PDF): Bierpreise Oktoberfest 2026 – 14,80–15,90 EUR/Maß, ø +2,38 %, Bekanntgabe 02.06.2026
PredictHQ / Oktoberfest Guide: Besucherprognose 2026 ca. 7,2 Mio.; 2025: 6,5 Mio.
Oktoberfest.de: 191. Wiesn, 19. September bis 4. Oktober 2026, 16 Tage (offiziell)

Verdict: Hit

Das Oktoberfest 2026 verzeichnete laut offizieller Abschlussbilanz 7,4 Millionen Besucher – ein neuer Allzeit-Rekord, der den Schwellenwert von 6,5 Millionen deutlich übertrifft. Quellen: ZDF Heute (https://www.zdfheute.de/panorama/wiesn-oktoberfest-2026-bilanz-100.html), Euronews (https://www.euronews.com/video/2026/10/05/oktoberfest-draws-record-74-million-visitors-in-munich), Oktoberfest.de Schlussbericht (https://www.oktoberfest.de/en/magazin/oktoberfest-news/vorlaeufiger-schlussbericht-2026). Treiber waren anhaltend gutes Spätsommerwetter, stark gestiegene internationale Buchungen (u. a. USA, Italien) sowie ein deutliches Plus an Wochentagsbesuchern (+25 %).

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