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Novak Djokovic (SRB, seeded No. 4) reaches the men's singles quarterfinals of the 2026 US Open (by September 9, 2026, confirmed by USTA or ATP)
Probability
56%
Djokovic is the 4th seed, chasing his 25th Grand Slam. His path to the round of 16 passes through Navone (#48), Wawrinka (wild card), Etcheverry (#12), and Nakashima (#17). He is in the same quarter as Medvedev (#7), a possible QF opponent. Round-by-round probability (R1: 98%, R2: 95%, R3: 80% vs. Etcheverry, R4: 75% vs. Nakashima) yields a combined ~56%. Bookmaker odds for the tournament SF imply ~55% reach for Djokovic, consistent with this estimate. Draw released August 27, 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- US Open 2026 Draw, veröffentlicht 27. August 2026: Djokovic Nr. 4, Weg: Navone – Wawrinka – Etcheverry (#12) – Nakashima (#17) (bleacherreport.com, puntodebreak.com)
- Djokovic und Alcaraz in derselben Hälfte; Djokovic im selben Viertel wie Medvedev (#7) (SI.com, Lob & Smash, August 2026)
- US Open 2026 Turnierplan: Viertelfinale 8.–9. September 2026 (USTA, WTA-Tennis.com)
- Aggregierte Buchmacherquoten: Djokovic SF-Reichweite ~55 % (Oddschecker-Aggregat, Stand 31. August 2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Novak Djokovic schied bereits in der ersten Runde der US Open 2026 gegen Mariano Navone aus und kann das Viertelfinale definitiv nicht mehr erreichen. Quelle: mehrere US-Open-Turnierberichte (CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports).