2026 Nobel Prize in Physics awarded to Pablo Jarrillo-Herrero (MIT), H. Allan MacDonald (UT Austin), and Rafi Bistritzer for discovering superconductivity in magic-angle twisted bilayer graphene (announcement October 6, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. September 2026
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Predicted for 6. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Bistritzer & MacDonald predicted in 2011 the twist angle at which bilayer graphene would exhibit exotic quantum properties ('magic angle'). Jarrillo-Herrero's MIT group confirmed this experimentally in 2018, discovering unexpected superconductivity at ~1.1° — launching the field of Moiré quantum materials. Kalshi hosts a Nobel Physics 2026 market; specific odds not retrievable. Among roughly 6–8 serious candidate groups (including Jun Ye & Hidetoshi Katori for optical lattice clocks), Twisted Graphene ranks top 3. Nobel Physics remains structurally hard to predict.
Data basis for this prediction
- Nobel Prize Physics 2026: Bekanntgabe Dienstag, 6. Oktober 2026 (nobelprize.org, 2026)
- Kalshi: Nobel Physics 2026 Markt aktiv; spezifische Quoten nicht öffentlich abrufbar (Stand 26.09.2026)
- Bistritzer & MacDonald (2011): 'Moiré bands in twisted double-layer graphene', PNAS 108(30)
- Cao, Fatemi et al. / Jarrillo-Herrero Lab (2018): 'Unconventional superconductivity in magic-angle graphene', Nature 556
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Jens Juul Holst (University of Copenhagen), Svetlana Mojsov (Rockefeller University) and Daniel J. Drucker (Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Toronto) were named Clarivate Citation Laureates 2026 on September 17, 2026 for GLP-1 foundational research — the basis for semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy) and tirzepatide. Lotte Bjerre Knudsen (Novo Nordisk) is cited as pharmacological complement. GLP-1 is rated the leading candidate field for the 2026 Medicine Nobel by medium.com and oneseventynine.ai. With ~15 competing candidate constellations, single-field probability is approximately 20–25%; no dedicated Polymarket market available.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Anthropic filed its confidential S-1 with the SEC in June 2026. Reuters reported on September 5, 2026 that roadshow marketing is set to begin mid-October 2026, with the first trading day a few days before the US midterms (November 3, 2026). The expected valuation of ~$2 trillion would surpass SpaceX as the largest-ever IPO. Polymarket sees 56.8% probability for Anthropic as the largest 2026 IPO by market cap. With the S-1 already filed and a concrete timeline in place, the probability of a formal roadshow launch by October 31 is ~76% — above the Polymarket anchor — as only extraordinary market turbulence or regulatory objections would force a delay into November.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Google has launched a new Pixel flagship every year since 2017: Pixel 7 (Oct 2022), Pixel 8 (Oct 2023), Pixel 9 (Aug 2024), Pixel 10 (Oct 2025). The Pixel 11 Pro for October 2026 continues this cycle; leaks regarding an upgraded Tensor G6 (or Snapdragon X Elite equivalent) and expanded on-device Gemini capabilities have circulated since August 2026. No specific prediction market found; own estimate based on the annual release pattern and the assumption that the Pixel 9/10/11 cycle continues yearly. Main risk: event shifted to November 2026 (~15%) or unexpected rebrand. Forecast: 75% by October 31.