2026 Nobel Prize in Chemistry awarded to David R. Liu (Harvard/Broad Institute) for base editing and prime editing
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 29. September 2026
·
Predicted for 8. October 2026
·
Based on: Speculative
Chemistry World and Clarivate identify David R. Liu (Harvard University / Broad Institute) as the leading candidate for the 2026 Nobel Prize in Chemistry (announced October 8, 2026). Liu developed base editing in 2016 and prime editing in 2019 — precise genome editing methods without DNA double-strand breaks, safer and more efficient than CRISPR-Cas9. No liquid prediction market available. The 18% probability reflects the inherent unpredictability of the Nobel Committee. Alternative candidates: Shankar Balasubramanian & David Klenerman (DNA sequencing, 2026 Princess of Asturias Prize winners — historically a strong Nobel signal).
Data basis for this prediction
- Chemistry World: Nobel Chemistry 2026 preview — Liu als Spitzenreiter (September 2026)
- Clarivate Citation Laureates 2026: David R. Liu gelistet
- Nobelprize.org: Bekanntgabetermin Chemie 8. Oktober 2026, 11:45 Uhr MESZ
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
The Kalshi market for Nobel Physics 2026 (~$8K volume, very thin) lists Kane, Kitaev, and Preskill as top candidates at ~24–30¢ each. A Physics Forums community market briefly priced E. Mele at 97% — either an insider signal or manipulation, but it illuminates sentiment. Kane & Mele described the quantum spin Hall effect in 2005, the theoretical seed of all topological quantum states; Kane received the 2023 Lorentz Medal. Serious alternative candidates: Alexei Kitaev (topological quantum computing), Qikun Xue (experimental confirmation), Aharonov/Berry (geometric phases). Honestly calibrated at 26% — the Physics prize remains structurally unpredictable.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
All three were jointly named 2026 Clarivate Citation Laureates for GLP-1 discovery — a predictor with strong historical Nobel correlation. Holst and Drucker also received the 2026 Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences. Joel Habener's death (2025/26) reduces the viable laureate group to three, simplifying the award. A GLP-1 Nobel is considered medically 'overdue' (Ozempic revolution). No liquid prediction market found for Nobel Medicine 2026 (no Polymarket or Kalshi contract active as of Sept 28, 2026). Probability honestly calibrated at 38%, as the Medicine Nobel regularly surprises.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Elon Musk internally put the probability of catching Ship 42 on the first attempt at 50–60% (TeslaNorth.com, Sep 15, 2026). Starship Flight 14 completed the first orbital payload mission on September 28, 2026 (26 Starlink V3 satellites deployed, Ship 41 water-landed as planned) — no catch attempted, but the outcome confirms Ship 42 as the next candidate. NET for Flight 15 per CADENA-COMPASS slide: no earlier than October 19, 2026. Ship 42 passed Mechazilla chopstick grip tests on September 12, 2026 (TeslaNorth.com). Booster catches have been demonstrated multiple times; the Ship catch is harder (orbital return speed, greater heat-shield stress). No Polymarket/Kalshi market found; SpaceX's internal estimate (50–60%) serves as direct anchor. Own estimate: 52% — modest discount for the greater technical difficulty versus booster catches.