Nikkei 225 closes above 70,000 points on July 18, 2026
Miss
โฆ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. July 2026
ยท
Predicted for 18. July 2026
ยท
Based on: Ongoing Event
The Nikkei 225 closed at 68,558 on July 10, 2026 (+1.2% from prior day), approximately 2.1% below the 70,000 level. The all-time high of 72,831 was set on June 22, 2026; the index gained +6.76% over the past 30 days. Long Forecast projects a July monthly average of 74,068 (Max. 79,911). A +2.1% move in eight trading days is achievable at moderate VIX (15.03) but not certain. Risks: US CPI 4.2% YoY (data July 14), Iran conflict, USD/JPY weakness. Own estimate: ~46%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Trading Economics: Japan Stock Market Index Nikkei 225 = 68.558, +1,20 % (10.07.2026)
- Long Forecast: Nikkei 225 Juli 2026 โ Monatsdurchschnitt 74.068, Max. 79.911 (abgerufen 12.07.2026)
- EBC Financial Group: 'Nikkei 225 Forecast: Is the Run to 70,000 an Entry Point or the Top?' (abgerufen 12.07.2026)
- FRED/CBOE: VIX-Schlussstand 15,03 (10.07.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Nikkei 225 schloss zuletzt bei ca. 64.141 Punkten (Yahoo Finance/Trading Economics) โ weit unter der Schwelle von 70.000 Punkten.
๐ Economy
โฆ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a ฯ range of roughly ยฑ5.5% by month-end โ the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
๐ Economy
โฆ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 โ an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
๐ Economy
โฆ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.