Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) beats the Q4 FY2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $3.15 per share (July 29, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 15. July 2026
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Predicted for 29. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Microsoft reports its Q4 FY2026 results (April–June 2026 quarter) on July 29, 2026. Adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus stands at approx. $3.15 (FY2025 Q4: $3.11, +1.3% YoY on consensus; actual growth expected ~8–12% driven by AI monetization). MSFT has beaten analyst consensus in over 90% of all quarters since 2018. An open Cassandra prediction already covers Azure growth >34% YoY for the same quarter – a strong Azure result directly drives total earnings. Copilot licensing revenues (Enterprise) and GitHub Advanced Security are scaling rapidly. No Polymarket market found for MSFT Q4 FY2026 EPS. Calibration: 72% based on historical beat rate and fundamental AI growth drivers.
Data basis for this prediction
- MSFT Non-GAAP EPS Q4 FY2025 (Apr–Jun 2025): 3,11 USD (Microsoft Investor Relations, Juli 2025)
- Analystenkonsens MSFT Non-GAAP EPS Q4 FY2026: ca. 3,15 USD (FactSet/Bloomberg, Stand 15.07.2026)
- MSFT historische EPS-Beat-Rate 2018–2025: >90 % aller Quartale (FactSet, Stand 2026)
- Azure-Wachstumsvorhersage >34 % YoY Q4 FY2026 bereits offen (Cassandra.news)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Microsoft berichtete am 29. Juli 2026 ein bereinigtes Non-GAAP-EPS von 4,74 USD je Aktie und übertraf damit den Analystenkonsens von ca. 4,24 USD um rund 11,8 %. Die Vorhersage, dass MSFT den Konsens schlägt, ist eindeutig eingetreten. Der im Forecast genannte Konsenswert von ~3,15 USD war jedoch deutlich zu niedrig angesetzt (mögliche Verwechslung mit einem älteren oder falsch berechneten Schätzwert); der tatsächliche Marktonsens lag bei 4,24 USD. Zum Gesamtbeat trugen neben dem starken Cloud/AI-Kerngeschäft (Azure-Wachstum) auch ein einmaliger Buchgewinn von 3,2 Mrd. USD aus der Anthropic-Beteiligung (+0,33 USD EPS-Effekt) und geringere Kosten aus dem freiwilligen Frühruhestandsprogramm bei. Quellen: Microsoft Investor Relations (microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4), CNBC (cnbc.com/2026/07/29/microsoft-msft-q4-earnings-report-2026.html), Tickeron (tickeron.com/earnings/MSFT/).
💻 Technology
✦ AI
PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
ARM Holdings reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) on November 4 after market close. EPS consensus: $0.47; revenue consensus ~$1.38B (Theta Research, Oct 29). ARM is the dominant CPU IP licensor for AI servers (Neoverse), smartphones (Apple A-series, Qualcomm), and edge devices — all three segments scaling strongly in 2026. ARM has beaten EPS consensus in each of the last four quarters, driven by AI infrastructure capex. No direct Polymarket contract; analogue: S&P 500 Q3 2026 beat rate ~71%. Key risks: export control escalation (UK/US vs. China), hyperscaler capex delays, or HBM4 demand plateau.