Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) beats the Q4 FY2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $3.15 per share (July 29, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 15. July 2026
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Predicted for 29. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Microsoft reports its Q4 FY2026 results (April–June 2026 quarter) on July 29, 2026. Adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus stands at approx. $3.15 (FY2025 Q4: $3.11, +1.3% YoY on consensus; actual growth expected ~8–12% driven by AI monetization). MSFT has beaten analyst consensus in over 90% of all quarters since 2018. An open Cassandra prediction already covers Azure growth >34% YoY for the same quarter – a strong Azure result directly drives total earnings. Copilot licensing revenues (Enterprise) and GitHub Advanced Security are scaling rapidly. No Polymarket market found for MSFT Q4 FY2026 EPS. Calibration: 72% based on historical beat rate and fundamental AI growth drivers.
Data basis for this prediction
- MSFT Non-GAAP EPS Q4 FY2025 (Apr–Jun 2025): 3,11 USD (Microsoft Investor Relations, Juli 2025)
- Analystenkonsens MSFT Non-GAAP EPS Q4 FY2026: ca. 3,15 USD (FactSet/Bloomberg, Stand 15.07.2026)
- MSFT historische EPS-Beat-Rate 2018–2025: >90 % aller Quartale (FactSet, Stand 2026)
- Azure-Wachstumsvorhersage >34 % YoY Q4 FY2026 bereits offen (Cassandra.news)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Microsoft berichtete am 29. Juli 2026 ein bereinigtes Non-GAAP-EPS von 4,74 USD je Aktie und übertraf damit den Analystenkonsens von ca. 4,24 USD um rund 11,8 %. Die Vorhersage, dass MSFT den Konsens schlägt, ist eindeutig eingetreten. Der im Forecast genannte Konsenswert von ~3,15 USD war jedoch deutlich zu niedrig angesetzt (mögliche Verwechslung mit einem älteren oder falsch berechneten Schätzwert); der tatsächliche Marktonsens lag bei 4,24 USD. Zum Gesamtbeat trugen neben dem starken Cloud/AI-Kerngeschäft (Azure-Wachstum) auch ein einmaliger Buchgewinn von 3,2 Mrd. USD aus der Anthropic-Beteiligung (+0,33 USD EPS-Effekt) und geringere Kosten aus dem freiwilligen Frühruhestandsprogramm bei. Quellen: Microsoft Investor Relations (microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4), CNBC (cnbc.com/2026/07/29/microsoft-msft-q4-earnings-report-2026.html), Tickeron (tickeron.com/earnings/MSFT/).
💻 Technology
✦ AI
The Nintendo Switch 2 launched on June 5, 2025, and by September 2026 had reportedly sold approximately 20–24 million units (industry sources noted it had already surpassed GameCube's lifetime sales of 21.74M). Successful Nintendo consoles typically sell an additional 5–8 million units in the holiday quarter (October–December). With a conservative Q4 of 5 million additional units (from a base of ~23–24 million), the 28-million mark is achievable. No Polymarket quote; Metaculus implies ~52% at this threshold.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Apple follows its established chip refresh cycle: M4 MacBook Pro announced November 2024 — M5 refresh after 23–24 months in October/November 2026 fits the historical pattern exactly (M1→M2: ~17 months; M2→M3: ~16 months; M3→M4: ~14 months). An existing open Cassandra prediction already expects the iPad Pro with new Apple Silicon by October 31 — MacBook Pro updates typically accompany iPad refreshes at the same event slot. 9to5Mac and Bloomberg reported M5 MacBook Pro leaks for H2 2026. Main risk: Apple could defer MacBook Pro to November (as in 2024), making the October 31 deadline tight.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Samsung announced Intelligent Eyewear for 'Fall 2026' at Galaxy Unpacked London (July 2026). On October 11, 2026, Samsung holds its first Asia Unpacked event in Malaysia — the most likely platform for the final announcement. Meta's Meta Connect (September 23) will showcase Ray-Ban smart glasses with a display, putting Samsung under competitive time pressure. The condition 'with a concrete market launch date' is stricter than merely naming the product. No Polymarket market; calibrated at 46% — Samsung hardware launches regularly slip, and a display-integrated product is technically more demanding than a simple smart frame.