Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) beats Q4 FY2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. USD 3.50 per share (~July 29, 2026, after market close, confirmed by Microsoft press release)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. July 2026
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Predicted for 29. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Microsoft reports Q4 FY2026 results (~July 29, April–June 2026 quarter, fiscal year end June 30). Non-GAAP EPS consensus is approximately USD 3.50. Microsoft has beaten EPS consensus for at least 18 consecutive quarters. Azure Cloud continues to grow >35% YoY driven by AI workloads (OpenAI partnership, Copilot). Analog: Alphabet beat its consensus by 216% on July 22, 2026 (EPS $9.11 vs. $2.89 consensus), primarily via Google Cloud (+82%) and Anthropic stake. A similar AI-infrastructure tailwind supports Microsoft's Azure. No Polymarket contract identified for this specific event.
Data basis for this prediction
- Microsoft Q3 FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS: 3,46 USD — bestätigt (Microsoft IR, Jan–Mär 2026)
- Alphabet Q2 2026 EPS: 9,11 USD vs. 2,89 USD Konsens — Google Cloud +82% (9to5google, 22.7.2026)
- Microsoft: 18+ konsekutive Quartale mit EPS-Beat (historische Serie)
- Azure AI-Wachstum: >35% YoY durch OpenAI/Copilot-Nachfrage (CNBC, Q1 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Microsoft berichtete am 29. Juli 2026 nach Börsenschluss seinen Q4-FY2026-Ergebnis und übertraf den EPS-Konsens deutlich: Non-GAAP-EPS von 4,74 USD vs. Konsens-Erwartung von 4,24 USD (+11,8 %). Der in der Vorhersage genannte Konsens von ~3,50 USD war allerdings veraltet/zu niedrig; der tatsächliche Konsens lag bei ~4,24 USD. Der Kerninhalt der Vorhersage – ein klares EPS-Beat – trat vollständig ein. Treiber waren Azure-Wachstum von 43 % YoY (Azure-Jahresumsatz erstmals über 100 Mrd. USD), ein 3,2-Mrd.-USD-Gewinn aus der Anthropic-Beteiligung und geringere VRP-Kosten. Die MSFT-Aktie stieg daraufhin um ~8 %. Quellen: Microsoft Pressemitteilung (news.microsoft.com, 29.07.2026), Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Investing.com.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.