💻 Technology · Next Week

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) beats Q4 FY2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of ~$4.21 (July 29, 2026, after market close)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 29. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

88%

Polymarket sees 93% probability of an MSFT beat on adjusted EPS of $4.21. Microsoft has beaten EPS consensus in 17 of the last 18 quarters; Q3 FY2026 delivered $4.27 vs. $4.06 expected. Azure Cloud growth (separate open prediction: >30% YoY), GitHub Copilot monetization, and Azure OpenAI services drive earnings. Revenue consensus: ~$86.7B. The market prices a very high beat probability as MSFT structurally benefits from AI infrastructure investment.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket MSFT Q4 FY2026 EPS-Beat: 93 % (Stand 21.07.2026)
MSFT Konsens-EPS Q4 FY2026: $4,21; Umsatz $86,7 Mrd. (Yahoo Finance, 21.07.2026)
MSFT Q3 FY2026: $4,27 vs. $4,06 Konsens; Beat in 17/18 Quartalen (StockTitan/MarketBeat)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Microsoft meldete am 29. Juli 2026 nach Börsenschluss einen Non-GAAP-EPS von 4,74 USD – deutlich über dem Konsensziel von ca. 4,21–4,24 USD (Beat von ~12 %). Auch der Umsatz übertraf mit 90,01 Mrd. USD die erwarteten ~87,6 Mrd. USD. Wesentliche Treiber waren das Intelligent-Cloud-Segment (39,31 Mrd. USD, Azure +43 % YoY), ein 3,2-Mrd.-USD-Gewinn aus der Anthropic-Beteiligung sowie geringere Kosten aus dem freiwilligen Vorruhestandsprogramm. Quellen: Microsoft IR Press Release (news.microsoft.com, 29.07.2026), CNBC MSFT Q4 2026 Earnings Report, Yahoo Finance / Zacks.

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