📈 Economy · Next Month

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) beats the adjusted Q2 2026 EPS analyst consensus on July 29, 2026

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 11. July 2026 · Predicted for 29. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

75%

Meta reports Q2 results on July 29, 2026. Q1 2026 was a massive beat: EPS $7.31 vs. consensus $6.79 (+7.7%). AI-driven ad relevance (Advantage+ Campaigns) drives revenue and margin growth; the World Cup season April–June likely boosted global ad spending. Annual capex $125–145B signals growth confidence. Historical Meta beat rate: 7 of 8 quarters. No explicit Polymarket market found.

Data basis for this prediction

Meta Q2-Earnings Datum: 29. Juli 2026 (Meta IR / CNBC)
Meta Q1 2026: EPS 7,31 USD vs. Konsens 6,79 USD (Yahoo Finance / Quartz 29.04.2026)
META CAPEX 2026: 125–145 Mrd. USD (Meta Q1 Earnings Call / CNBC)
META ~631 USD Anfang Juli 2026 (Yahoo Finance)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Meta berichtete am 29. Juli 2026 einen GAAP-Diluted-EPS von 6,18 USD – ein klarer Miss von ~14% gegenüber dem Analystenkonsens von ~7,17–7,23 USD. Meta veröffentlicht kein separates Non-GAAP/adjusted EPS, d.h. der Marktstandard-Vergleich basiert auf GAAP. Der Miss brach eine sechsquartalslange Beat-Serie. Ursache: Gesamtkosten stiegen 55 % YoY auf 42 Mrd. USD – fast doppelt so stark wie der Umsatz (+28 %) – getrieben von 2,4 Mrd. USD Rückstellungen für laufende Rechtsstreitigkeiten und 1,18 Mrd. USD Abfindungskosten aus dem Stellenabbau ab Mai 2026. Der Free Cash Flow kollabierte auf 784 Mio. USD. Umsatz ($60,8 Mrd. vs. $60,19 Mrd. Konsens) schlug zwar die Erwartungen, doch die Vorhersage bezog sich explizit auf EPS. Die Aktie fiel ~10 % nachbörslich. Quellen: Yahoo Finance / Investing.com / TradingKey / SEC-Pressemitteilung Meta Q2 2026.

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