💻 Technology
· Next Week
Meta Connect 2026 (Sep 23–24, Menlo Park CA): Meta officially unveils its first consumer smartwatch ('Malibu 2') with health tracking and Meta AI
Probability
82%
Four independent sources (TechTimes, eWeek, GCN, Wareable) confirm that Meta will unveil its first consumer smartwatch 'Malibu 2' on September 23, 2026 at Meta Connect. Planned features: continuous heart rate and blood oxygen monitoring, sleep analysis, sEMG gestures (surface electromyography), Meta AI assistant without mandatory subscription, and pairing with Ray-Ban Display AI Glasses. Meta had cancelled an earlier smartwatch project in 2022; the resumption with Malibu 2 is confirmed on the roadmap for 2026. No Polymarket market found for this event; the convergence of leaks and official hints immediately before the event implies a very high probability. Calibrated probability: 82%.
Data basis for this prediction
- TechTimes: 'Meta Smartwatch Due September 23: Malibu 2 Doubles as Gesture Hub for Ray-Ban AI Glasses' (11.06.2026)
- eWeek: 'Meta's Malibu 2 Smartwatch to Focus on Health Tracking, AI' (2026)
- GCN: 'Meta expected to reveal its first smartwatch at Connect 2026 on September 23' (Stand 21.09.2026)
- Wareable: 'Meta's smartwatch saga continues, with Project Malibu 2 slated for 2026' (Stand 21.09.2026)
Verdict: Miss
Die Malibu-2-Smartwatch wurde bei Meta Connect 2026 (23.–24. September) nicht vorgestellt. Meta kündigte stattdessen VR-Brille ($1.299,99), Ray-Ban Meta Gen 3 ($449), Ray-Ban Meta Audio ($349), Meta Adventurer ($249) und den Muse Charm-Pendant an. Die Smartwatch war laut Tom's Guide und Engadget auffällig abwesend; Tom's Guide titelte explizit 'What was missing from Meta Connect 2026?' und listete das Smartwatch-Projekt als nicht erschienen auf. Trotz zahlreicher Pre-Event-Leaks (TechTimes, GCN, The Information) und Berichten, die eine Vorstellung am 23. September suggerierten, wurde das Malibu-2-Projekt auf dem Event übergangen. Die Vorhersage scheiterte, weil Meta offenbar die Prioritäten kurzfristig verschob und stattdessen das Muse-AI-Ökosystem (Muse Charm) als Pendant-Gerät in den Vordergrund rückte. Quellen: Engadget 'Everything announced at Meta Connect 2026', Tom's Guide Recap, Techcabal-Zusammenfassung.