⚽ Sports
· Next Year
Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team wins the 2026 Formula 1 Constructors' World Championship
Probability
72%
Mercedes leads the Constructors' Championship with 333 points — 78 ahead of Ferrari (255) and 154 ahead of McLaren (179). Simultaneously, Antonelli leads the Drivers' Championship by ~40 points over teammate Russell. The team has seven race wins this season; Russell most recently won in Austria. With approximately 14 races remaining (from Belgian GP), Ferrari would need a systematic catch-up of ~5.6 points per race — very unlikely given Mercedes' ongoing dominance. The new 2026 active aero regulations particularly suit Mercedes' engineering approach. No Polymarket market found for Constructors' Championship. Own estimate: Mercedes ~72%, Ferrari ~18%, McLaren ~8%, others ~2%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Formula1.com / F1-fansite.com Constructors Standings (14. Juli 2026): Mercedes 333 Pkt., Ferrari 255 Pkt., McLaren 179 Pkt.
- Formula1.com Drivers Standings (14. Juli 2026): Antonelli führt mit ~40 Punkten Vorsprung auf Russell
- ESPN / worldofspeed.org: Belgian GP 2026 preview (14. Juli 2026) – '7 race wins, 98-pt lead entering Spa'
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.