📈 Economy · Next Week

McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) beats Q2-2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. USD 3.40 per share (July 28, 2026, pre-market)

Partial Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 28. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

67%

McDonald's has beaten adjusted EPS consensus in 12 of the last 14 quarters (~86% beat rate). Q1 2026 delivered adj. EPS of $3.24 vs. consensus $3.09 (+4.9%). Prior-year price increases support margins; the slightly weaker USD (EUR/USD 1.14 vs. ~1.08 prior year) modestly favours international earnings consolidation. Q2 consensus is approx. $3.40 Non-GAAP. No Polymarket market for MCD; calibration at 67%.

Data basis for this prediction

McDonald's Q1 2026 adj. EPS: 3,24 USD vs. Konsens 3,09 USD (MCD Investor Relations, Apr. 2026)
EUR/USD aktuell 1,1409–1,1413 (MTFX Group, 21. Juli 2026)
McDonald's historische EPS-Beat-Rate 2022–2026: ~86 % (FactSet-Konsens)
MCD Q2-Meldetermin: 28. Juli 2026 vor Börseneröffnung (MCD Earnings Calendar)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Partial Hit

McDonald's meldete für Q2 2026 (Bericht am 28. Juli 2026) einen bereinigten Non-GAAP-EPS von 3,38 USD – ein Anstieg von 6 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr und ein Schlag gegen den tatsächlichen Analysten-Konsens von ca. 3,32 USD. Die Vorhersage war also in der Richtung (EPS-Beat) korrekt, jedoch stimmte die im Modell angenommene Konsens-Schwelle von ca. 3,40 USD nicht mit dem realen Konsens überein. Da der tatsächliche bereinigte EPS (3,38 USD) unter der genannten Benchmark von 3,40 USD liegt, wurde der Konsens geschlagen, aber nicht im prognostizierten Ausmaß. Revenue verfehlte zudem mit 7,10 Mrd. USD die Erwartung von 7,13 Mrd. USD leicht. Quellen: McDonald's Press Release (PR Newswire, 28. Juli 2026), StockTitan 8-K-Filing, 247WallSt Earnings Summary, Investing.com Earnings Call Transcript.

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