⚽ Sports · Next Week

Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck, NED) wins Stage 21 of the Tour de France 2026 (Thoiry – Paris Champs-Élysées, July 26, 2026)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 26. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

30%

Stage 21 runs from Thoiry to Paris including the Côte de la Butte Montmartre (1.1 km, 5.9%) 10.3 km from the finish — a profile favouring classics puncheurs over pure flat sprinters. MvdP explicitly expressed enthusiasm for the Montmartre finale and was disappointed to miss the 2025 edition (won by Wout van Aert with a solo attack on Montmartre). MvdP dominates cobbled classics (multiple Paris-Roubaix wins). Strong rivals: Mads Pedersen, Tadej Pogacar, Jasper Philipsen. No official betting odds found; estimate based on stage profile and rider biography.

Data basis for this prediction

CyclingStage.com: TdF 2026 Stage 21 Favourites – Montmartre 1,1 km / 5,9 %, 10,3 km vor Ziel (2026)
CyclingNews: MvdP – 'Montmartre-Finale ist etwas, worauf ich mich freue' (Interview 2026)
RoadmanCycling: Stage 21 Route – Thoiry → Paris via Montmartre-Kletterpassage (2026)
Rouleur: 2025 TdF Stage 21 – Wout van Aert Solosieg nach Montmartre-Attacke (2025)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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