Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) beats Q2-2026 adjusted non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $4.75 per share (23 July 2026, pre-market)
Miss
β¦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. July 2026
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Predicted for 23. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Mastercard Q1 2026 non-GAAP EPS was $4.60 vs $4.41 consensus (beat by 4.3%). Q2 2026 consensus stands at ~$4.75, +14.5% year-over-year vs. $4.15 in Q2 2025. Mastercard beats estimates in ~75β80% of quarters, supported by global payment volume growth and travel recovery. No Polymarket market; own estimate: 70%.
Data basis for this prediction
- meyka.com: 'MA Mastercard Q1 2026 results exceed expectations β EPS $4.60 vs $4.41' (April 2026)
- aaii.com: 'Mastercard Q2 2026 earnings preview β consensus $4.75' (Juli 2026)
- tipranks.com: Mastercard earnings history and beat frequency
- finance.yahoo.com: MA Q2 2026 preview β EPS est. +14.5% YoY
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Mastercard berichtet Q2 2026 NICHT am 23. Juli, sondern am 30. Juli 2026. Das in der Vorhersage angegebene Datum ist falsch β der vorhergesagte Ereignistag ist verstrichen, ohne dass das Ergebnis verΓΆffentlicht wurde. Quelle: MarketScreener / Meyka.
π Economy
β¦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 β its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 β triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400β8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
π Economy
β¦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent β both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
π Economy
β¦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 β driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00β4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.