Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek, DEN) wins Stage 11 of the Vuelta a España 2026 (Cartagena → Lorca, 151.3 km, 2 September 2026, confirmed by UCI result or lavuelta.es)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 29. August 2026
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Predicted for 2. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Stage 11 covers 151.3 km from Cartagena to Lorca – a typical flat sprint stage with only 1,444 m of elevation gain and a ProfileScore of 60. Morrón de Totana (Cat. 3) and Alto de Aledo (7.8 km, 4.5%) must be crossed, but both summits lie roughly 30 km before the finish, leaving ample time for regrouping. The sprint field is significantly thinned: Tim Merlier, Jasper Philipsen and Dylan Groenewegen all skipped the Vuelta 2026 in favour of Belgian races. Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), a world-class sprinter and former world champion, is the strongest remaining sprinter; Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) and Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Premier Tech) are the next threats. No Polymarket market available for stage results; aggregated bookmaker odds for Vuelta sprint stages imply Pedersen as clear top favourite at around 40%.
Data basis for this prediction
- lavuelta.es / procyclingstats.com: Stage 11 Cartagena–Lorca, 151,3 km, ProfileScore 60, Flachetappe mit Morrón de Totana + Alto de Aledo (Aug 2026)
- cyclingstage.com 'Vuelta 2026 Favourites stage 11: For fast men #3': Pedersen, van Aert, Brennan als Hauptkandidaten (Aug 2026)
- cyclingnews.com: Merlier, Philipsen, Groenewegen fehlen im Vuelta-2026-Feld – belgische Herbstklassiker als Alternative (Aug 2026)
- procyclingstats.com Sprinter-Startliste Vuelta 2026: Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), van Aert (Visma), Groves (Alpecin) als Top-3 (Stand Aug 29, 2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Etappe 11 der Vuelta 2026 (Cartagena → Lorca) wurde von Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck, AUS) gewonnen, nicht von Mads Pedersen. Quelle: granfondoguide.com.
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