⚽ Sports · Next Week

Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek, DEN) wins the Green Jersey (points classification) at the 2026 Tour de France (Paris, July 26/27, 2026)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 27. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

74%

Mads Pedersen leads the 2026 Tour de France points classification after Stage 16 with 417 points. Tadej Pogačar, the only other sprinter/puncheur with major points potential, focuses on the Yellow and Polka Dot jerseys. On the remaining Stages 17–21 (two Alpe d'Huez summit finishes + Champs-Élysées sprint), Pedersen is well-positioned to secure his lead. No separate Green Jersey market found on Polymarket; Pedersen's lead implies ~75% per internal model calibration.

Data basis for this prediction

TdF 2026 Punktewertung: Pedersen 417 Pkt. nach Etappe 16 (domestiquecycling.com, Juli 2026)
TdF 2026 Etappenplan 17–21: Chambéry–Voiron, Alpe d'Huez (×2), Paris (letour.fr)
Polymarket TdF 2026 Gesamtsieger: Pogačar 94,8 % (Polymarket.com, Juli 2026)
Stage 21 Favoriten: Mathieu van der Poel / Tim Merlier laut offenen Plattform-Vorhersagen

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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