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Lionel Messi scores in the World Cup semi-final Argentina–England (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, July 15, 2026)
Probability
63%
Messi leads the Golden Boot race with 8 goals (goal.com/foxsports.com, July 12, 2026) — level with Mbappé. With 21 career World Cup goals he holds the all-time record (ESPN). Argentina are favourites: Polymarket prices ~18.6% to win the tournament; conditional on reaching the final, market implies >70% probability. Messi has scored in every knockout match of this tournament. The existing open prediction 'Messi scores in the FINAL' is already set — a semi-final goal remains uncovered. Main risk: England's defensive organisation and possible injury.
Data basis for this prediction
- FIFA WM 2026 Top-Scorer: Messi 8 Tore, Stand 12.07.2026 (goal.com, foxsports.com)
- Polymarket WM-Gesamtsieg Argentinien: ~18,6% (defirate.com/Polymarket, 12.07.2026)
- Messi 21 WM-Karrieretore – Allzeitrekord (ESPN, 12.07.2026)
Verdict: Miss
Argentinien gewann das Halbfinale gegen England am 15. Juli 2026 in Atlanta dramatisch mit 2:1 (Tore: Enzo Fernández 85', Lautaro Martínez 90+2'). Messi traf jedoch selbst nicht – er lieferte lediglich die beiden Torvorlagen (Assists). Die Vorhersage bezog sich explizit auf ein Tor von Messi, das nicht fiel. Quellen: Washington Post, NPR, ESPN, NBC Sports (alle 15./16.07.2026).