⚽ Sports · Next Week

Lionel Messi (Argentina/Inter Miami) wins the FIFA World Cup 2026 Golden Boot as the tournament's top scorer

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 16. July 2026 · Predicted for 19. July 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

61%

Polymarket assigns Messi a 61% probability for the Golden Boot, well ahead of Mbappé at 38%. The award goes to the tournament's top scorer, independent of the final result. Argentina reached the final, meaning Messi played the maximum number of matches. This is independent of the existing 'Spain wins the final' open prediction, since total goals across all rounds count.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Messi WM 2026 Golden Boot 61%, Mbappé 38%, Stand 16.07.2026
WM 2026 Finale: Argentinien vs. Spanien, MetLife Stadium, 19. Juli 2026 (FIFA/CBS Sports, Stand 16.07.2026)

Verdict: Miss

Kylian Mbappé gewann den Goldenen Schuh der FIFA WM 2026 mit 10 Toren in 8 Spielen – nicht Messi. Messi beendete das Turnier mit 8 Toren auf Platz 2. Mbappé sicherte sich damit als erster Spieler überhaupt den Goldenen Schuh bei zwei aufeinanderfolgenden Weltmeisterschaften (2022 und 2026). Der entscheidende Faktor war das Finale: Mbappé traf im Endspiel und zog damit in der Torjägerliste an Messi vorbei. Quellen: FOX Sports (foxsports.com) und Yahoo Sports ('World Cup 2026 top scorers: Kylian Mbappe beats Lionel Messi to Golden Boot award again').

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