Likud (Netanyahu) remains the largest single party in the Knesset after the Israeli parliamentary election on October 27, 2026 (confirmed by Reuters or Haaretz by October 28, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 17. October 2026
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Predicted for 27. October 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Israel holds the 26th Knesset election on October 27, 2026 (120 seats, 3.25% threshold). The MEF Israel Vote Poll of Polls (October 16, 2026, fieldwork Sept 30–Oct 14) projects Likud at 23 seats and Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot) at 22 seats — a razor-thin margin. Channel 14 (Oct 12) gives Likud 29 vs Yashar 20; Channel 13 (Oct 14) shows Yashar 20 vs Likud 18. Polymarket implies 57% for Netanyahu remaining in office (inverted from 43% 'Netanyahu leaves office by year-end'). Neither bloc reaches the 61-seat majority (right bloc ~54, opposition ~53, Arab parties ~13). Confirmed as largest single party by official count on October 27–28, 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- MEF Israel Vote Poll of Polls: Likud 23, Yashar 22 Sitze (Stand 16. Oktober 2026, Feldzeit 30. Sept.–14. Okt.)
- Polymarket: Netanyahu bleibt im Amt 57 % (16. Oktober 2026)
- Channel 14 Umfrage: Likud 29, Yashar 20 Sitze (12. Oktober 2026); Channel 13: Yashar 20, Likud 18 (14. Oktober 2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 Israeli legislative election (abgerufen 17. Oktober 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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✦ AI
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🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
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