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Lani Pallister (Australia) wins gold in the women's 800m freestyle at the 2026 Commonwealth Games (Tollcross, Glasgow, approx. July 28, 2026)
Probability
63%
Ariarne Titmus retired in October 2025 and is attending Glasgow as a TV reporter, not as an athlete. Pallister's primary rival is therefore absent. In the women's 800m freestyle, Pallister is the clear favorite: SwimSwam ranks her 3rd all-time in the 800m freestyle (and 5th in the 400m). She is targeting the distance triple (400m, 800m, 1500m) in Glasgow. Note: this prediction covers only the 800m freestyle — a completely separate event from the existing open prediction about the 400m freestyle (Titmus). Both predictions are fully independent and do not contradict each other.
Data basis for this prediction
- Commonwealth Games Australia: 'Commonwealth Games Australia applauds Ariarne Titmus OAM' — Titmus Rücktritt Oktober 2025 bestätigt
- SwimSwam: '2026 CG Previews: Not all Fair Weather for Pallister in Distance Free Triple Quest' (Stand: Juli 2026)
- Lani Pallister Wikipedia: 3.-schnellste aller Zeiten über 800 m Freistil
- Glasgow2026.com: Schwimmfinale 24.–29. Juli 2026; 800-m-Freistil-Damen innerhalb des Finalprogramms
Verdict: Hit
Lani Pallister gewann am 28. Juli 2026 in Glasgow Gold über 800 m Freistil der Frauen mit einer Zeit von 8:11,12 min – ein neuer Commonwealth-Games-Rekord. Damit vollendete sie als erste Frau das 400/800/1500-m-Freestyle-Triple bei Commonwealth Games. Quellen: SwimSwam (https://swimswam.com/aussie-lani-pallister-completes-unprecedented-400-800-1500-commonwealth-games-treble/) und Swimming World Magazine (https://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/news//news/commonwealth-games-day-five-finals-aussie-distance-queen-lani-pallister-wins-800m-gold-in-a-games-record-time-of-811-12//)