⚽ Sports · Next Week

Kylian Mbappé wins the adidas Golden Boot at FIFA World Cup 2026 with at least 9 goals

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. July 2026 · Predicted for 19. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

42%

Mbappé and Messi are level at 8 goals apiece after the quarter-finals, but Mbappé leads on the tiebreaker with 3 assists (Messi: 1). Polymarket prices Mbappé at 43% (Messi 38%, Haaland 11.6%) with $53.3m in volume. France plays Spain on July 14 and potentially the final on July 19 – one more goal puts Mbappé ahead on all tiebreakers.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket 'World Cup Golden Boot Winner': Mbappé 43 %, Messi 38 %, Haaland 11,6 % – Vol. 53,3 Mio. USD (10.07.2026)
Olympics.com/ESPN: Mbappé & Messi je 8 Tore; Mbappé 3 Assists vs. Messi 1 nach QF (10.07.2026)
FOX Sports/Oddschecker: Mbappé Buchmacherquoten ca. +105 bis +150 als Torjäger-Favorit (10.07.2026)
FIFA.com: Halbfinale 14. Juli Dallas, Finale 19. Juli MetLife Stadium (Stand 12.07.2026)

Verdict: Hit

Kylian Mbappé gewann die adidas Golden Boot der FIFA WM 2026 mit 10 Toren – damit erfüllte er die Vorhersage (mindestens 9 Tore) sogar übertroffen. Er erzielte unter anderem einen Doppelpack im Spiel um Platz 3 gegen England (6:4) und setzte sich vor Messi (8 Tore), Haaland und Bellingham (je 7) durch. Messi traf im Finale gegen Spanien nicht, was Mbappés Vorsprung uneinholbar machte. Quellen: ESPN (https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/49397919/kylian-mbappe-wins-golden-boot-2026-world-cup-lionel-messi-goalless-final), France24 (https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260719-mbappe-wins-world-cup-golden-boot), Real Madrid offizielle Website (https://www.realmadrid.com/en-US/news/football/first-team/latest-news/mbappe-bota-de-oro-del-mundial-19-07-2026).

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