⚽ Sports
· Next Year
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes AMG Petronas, ITA) wins the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' World Championship (season finale ~November 2026, confirmed by FIA points standings after final race)
Probability
65%
Antonelli leads the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship after 11 races with 204 points — a 45-point lead over Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari, 159 pts) and 50 points over George Russell (Mercedes, 154 pts). He scored 6 race wins (China, Japan, Miami, Canada, Belgium, etc.) and 8 podium finishes; Mercedes leads the Constructors' Championship by 73 points (358:285 vs. Ferrari). Polymarket prices Antonelli at 61.6% probability for the title (trading volume: USD 6.5m). With 14 races remaining (~378 points theoretically possible), his lead represents ~12% of maximum achievable points. Main risks: mechanical failures, crashes, mid-season rule changes.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 61,6% für Antonelli F1 WC 2026 — Handelsvolumen 6,5 Mio. USD (24.7.2026)
- F1-Fahrerwertung nach R11: Antonelli 204 Pkt., Hamilton 159, Russell 154 (RacingNews365, 24.7.2026)
- Antonelli: 6 Siege in 11 Rennen, davon Belgien-GP (zuletzt 17.–19.7.2026)
- Mercedes-Konstrukteurswertung: 358 Pkt., Vorsprung 73 Pkt. auf Ferrari (Sky Sports F1, 24.7.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.